The German political map is expected to be redrawn after the election
Until 26 September, when the election in Germany will mark the end of the era, there is very little time left as Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel. Who will replace it? The forthcoming elections in Germany will be crucial for the stability not only of this country and the European Union, but also for the future of Russian-German relations.
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Conservatives have stopped
Merkel, who led the CDU/CSU bloc to four election victories, said more in 2018, he will not run for a new term. But now the situation is such that not only its finding of power, but in general the long dominance of the Christian Democrats in Germany may end.
Angela Merkel acknowledged that her Christian Democratic Union may finally lose power after leaving the post of Federal Chancellor, while opinion polls show that support for Christian Democrats has weakened.
According to Merkel, she always knew that her party would not win the election “automatically”. According to the Daily Mail, recent opinion polls have shown that Merkel's center-right bloc, led by future successor Armin Lashet, is the second most popular among Germans after the Social Democrats, with very low support – about 20 percent.
The Christian Democratic Union, led by Angela Merkel, has dominated German politics for decades, along with Bavaria's partner party, the Christian-Social Union.
Armin Laschet, candidate for chancellor of the Conservative CDU/CSU bloc, has long been considered a favorite among candidates for the role of Germany's next leader after Merkel, but his evaluation failed after a series of mistakes.
Laschet's response to the recent catastrophic flood in his homeland marked the beginning of a descent for a 60-year-old politician after he was filmed as a prank with local officials during a flood ceremony.
The state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia recently held a meeting dedicated to the memory of the victims of the natural disaster. In an apparent attempt to correct an earlier negative impression, Prime Minister Armin Laschet made a sincere speech that the COVID flood and pandemic are a suffering that will forever remain in historical consciousness. In addition, the politician promised that the victims of the natural disaster would be given every conceivable aid: “Every house, every village, every business must be rebuilt.”
According to Lashet, the fund has over EUR 30 billion, the largest reconstruction program since World War II.
Despite these attempts to restore his reputation, Lashet must work very, very hard to win. Maybe he will be supported by the shoulder offered by Angela Merkel.
The current head of the German government as a whole has not taken part in the election campaign, although she has recently taken a number of remarkable steps criticizing the possibility of the left administration coming to power and trying to support Armin Laschet in an unusually biased speech in parliament, the Daily Mail writes.
Merkel and Laschet recently toured the town of Hagen and other parts of North Rhine-Westphalia that were hit hard by floods in July. “Armin Laschet is very successful in running this largest country,” Angela Merkel crucified to reporters in Hagen. “Anyone who can lead such a country can also lead Germany as chancellor.” That “I think we can do well together – and Armin Laschet knows he has my support.”
But will Merkel's support save the dwindling chances of the Christian Democrats and Armin Lashet personally?
Green Party candidate Annalena Berbock and Social Democrat Olaf Scholz were a real competitor for him. The latest forecasts based on opinion polls predict the victory of the SPD led by Scholz (24%), followed by the conservative alliance CDU/CSU (21%) and the Green Party (17%).
The Christian Democratic Union does not have enough time to change the state of affairs before the September 26 parliamentary elections, skeptics say.
As Deutsche Welle points out, even most conservative supporters would like, according to opinion polls, not to see Armin Laschet as candidate for chancellor, but the head of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who he fought with Laschet for a nomination earlier this year for the post of chancellor of the center-right bloc. The politician recently told the dpa news agency that “if there is still a chance to break this trend, it will be this weekend”.
Indeed, the German media discussed the CDU/CSU bloc to take an unprecedented move: “change horses at the crossing” and nominate Laschet as Chancellor Zöder instead.
If voter support for the CDU/CSU alliance does not improve soon, the bloc could face a crushing defeat before a new government alliance led by the SPD. Potential partners for the Social Democrats are either the Greens, the Liberals of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) or the Left (Die Linke).
Rising Social Democracy
The center-left of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) was in coalition with the CDU/CSU, walking alongside them in opinion polls. But for the first time in 15 years, the Social Democrats began to outperform conservatives.
The SPD candidate for chancellor, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, now has a real chance to win. PR people managed to turn his reputation as a “boring” politician and bureaucrat into action, emphasizing the political experience of the Social Democrat.
It works by convincing the public that it can be a candidate for Merkel's succession rather than Armin Laschet, a candidate nominated by his own party, ”writes The Guardian.
Recent opinion polls show that the SPD has begun to surpass the Christian Democratic Union of Laschet by a few percentage points – Germany's oldest existing party last held such a position when it won the federal election led by Gerhard Schroeder in 2002.
“The SPD has developed a perfect campaign,” says Frank Stauss, a political communications expert. “That's 100% in line with the Scholz report.”
According to EU Today, Olaf Scholz wants to lead the country in a coalition government with the Greens, although opinion polls show that he will need the support of third parties to achieve a stable parliamentary majority, according to Reuters.
“I wanted to rule the Greens,” Scholz told Tagesspiegel, adding that the political proposals of the two sides overlap in many respects.
The Social Democrats and the Greens want to raise the country's minimum wage from € 9.60 to € 12 per hour, raise taxes for the super-rich and speed up the transition to renewable energy to meet climate targets. Both sides are also in favor of closer European integration.
In an effort to restart his stalled election campaign, Armin Laschet not only introduced his “team of the future”, but also attacked Scholz for not excluding the coalition with the far left from the Die Linke party. Conservatives say such a “red-green-red” coalition would mean a big departure from the German centrist mainstream.
Scholz denied the allegations and distanced himself from the left, which he described as unsuitable for government participation, until the party clearly made commitments to NATO, the transatlantic partnership with the United States, and sound public finances. “These requirements are not tradable,” Scholz said.
However, a recent poll conducted by Insa for Bild am Sonntag promises the SPD, led by Scholz, 25% of the vote and the CDU/CSU Laschet 20%. According to the survey, the Greens could count on 16%, the Free Democrats – 13%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – 12% and the left – 7%. This means that Scholz's coalition with the Greens will not get enough votes and will require the support of the CDU/CSU, the FDP or the left. All parties are eliminating a coalition with the far-right AfD.
But the election campaign is a fickle lady, and things may not go as well as they seem. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz also seems to have found Achilles' heel. Inspections were recently carried out at the ministry he led. And now potential Social Democrat partners in the future governing coalition have called for an extraordinary meeting of the Bundestag Finance Committee with Scholz. Opposition parties have given the incumbent politician full political responsibility for the current unsatisfactory state of the financial intelligence unit.
A few weeks before the election, the police and the prosecutor's office carried out investigations related to the preliminary investigation of employees of the financial intelligence unit, which is part of the structure of the Federal Customs Service and reports to the Ministry of Finance. In an investigation that has been under way since last year, financial intelligence officers are suspected of failing to provide law enforcement officials with information about possible fraud or money laundering. According to the Public Prosecutor's Office, inspections at the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Justice found documents confirming cases of “comprehensive data exchange” between the FIU and both departments.
Olaf Scholz is probably only indirectly related to the scandal. But under the conditions of the election, every bast in a row – and the scandal will be fully exploited by political opponents.
Green Dawn
German greens with a focus on climate change and social justice took over in the first half of this year leadership in opinion polls.
Forty-year-old Annalena Berbock of Union 90/Greens has not yet played a role in the government, but could theoretically lead her party to a new ruling coalition.
Before her election, she was relatively unknown – a leading party in 2017, but since then she has managed to convince both her party members and critics of her leadership qualities. Even former CDU Interior Minister Thomas de Mezières said he was impressed by her performance during coalition talks with the Greens after the 2017 election.
Critics accuse Berbock of lacking experience with the government, but she is sure he is the person to replace Angela Merkel.
“Yes, I have never been Chancellor or Minister. But I am in favor of renewal, while others are in favor of the status quo, “said the leader of the Greens after the party nominated her as the main candidate in 2019.
Annalena Berbock is the second woman to run for the highest post in Germany after Angela Merkel, and one previous candidate for chancellor was not younger than Berbock.
Climate protection and the phasing out of coal are high on its agenda. It has one clear goal: “to make Germany fairer and more climate-neutral,” Annalena Berbock told Sieben.
The Greens' top priority is to combat climate change and build an ecological transition. They plan to adopt the largest climate package in German history, complete the phasing out of coal by 2030, eight years before the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats are proposing, and accelerate the spread of renewable energy.
Berbock wants to begin phasing out internal combustion engines by 2030 to “ensure climate reliability and safe planning and investment for the automotive industry and consumers.”
Berbock also emphasized that “climate protection and social justice are inseparable”, adding that climate protection measures should not lead to social divisions. To save citizens from the additional costs, it wants to redistribute the additional income generated by rising carbon prices and create an “energy fund”. Under the proposed system, each citizen will receive € 75.
At the same time, Berbock's political ambitions go far beyond the purely environmental fight against climate change. In addition, the leader of the German Greens wants to strengthen the EU budget by providing the EU with direct tax revenues from the taxation of plastic and technology giants. The Greens also want to reform the Stability and Growth Pact to avert growing privatization pressures and encourage investment in times of crisis.
Annalena Berbock advocates a broader socio-ecological transformation and wants to make the EU a full-fledged social and financial union, strengthening the ability of a united Europe to act on an international stage comparable to the United States.
Berbock is known at the same time as an outspoken critic of the Polish and Hungarian authorities and said that under her chancellor she would try to take greater action against European violators of the rule of law in a trade union. What can we say about the attitude of the Green candidate towards Russia.
Several scandals related to forging her resume and alleged plagiarism in the book she published added to Berbock's successful entry of the fly into the election arena.>
Deutsche Welle recently said that Germany's most widely read tabloid, the Bild am Sonntag at an interview with Annalena Berbock after the Green candidate for chancellor and editorial staff could not agree on a publication date.
According to the daily, the politician refused the interview three weeks before the country's elections. “This is your site, Mrs. Berbock!” – such a headline crowned the missing conversation on a blank page. Bild said Berbock refused the interview because she couldn't find a suitable time. The daily added that Baerbock is the first green leader who was not questioned before the election. A Green Party spokesman told the DPA: “There are many investigations. Unfortunately, due to deadlines, it is impossible to meet all of them. “
Be that as it may, the support of the Greens, which rose sharply a few months ago, is still falling among voters. The party is almost ten points for the Social Democrats and five points for the CDU/CSU.