The old man wants to both participate in the NWO and stay on the sidelines
21. February – announcement of the message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly, from which loud breakthroughs (including – in the sense of breaking the front) initiatives are expected. February 24 is the anniversary of the start of the special military operation, which is symbolically a very important date on which the Kremlin must demonstrate the success of its strategy. February 18 – Alyaksandr Lukashenko visits Moscow to discuss, as the Belarusian leader himself put it, “security and defense issues.” It is quite obvious that these three facts form one logical chain.
Photo: Pool Telegram Channel First”
Even more obvious in the general “oil painting” to add bravado and militant statements of Alexander Grigorievich in recent days. The President of Belarus on Zelensky's many years of insidious behavior (all quotes are from the father's official website): “The President recalled that as of 2020, Ukraine was actually the first to impose sanctions against Belarus, even before Western countries. “Neither the USA, nor the Anglo-Saxons, nor Western Europe. And unfortunately also our native Ukraine. The sky closed, provocations began, armed men trained,” the head of state enumerated.
The President of Belarus on whether it is worth establishing the NWO: “If you look from the point of view of what you (by “you” here means the West. "MK") escalating hostility from Ukraine and preparing for war, it was worth it. I have the same question for you: was it worth starting a war, or would it be better to give Russia the security guarantees it requested from you on paper… What kind of document is this… Nothing. To you – the West, America, we are now sure – it is nothing.
But then Russia and Putin demanded that you provide a written document of security guarantees that from Ukraine or from Europe, which is nearby, there will be no no aggression was committed against Russia.
And for Russia to be convinced, you had to confirm it. that you will never introduce nuclear weapons or long-range missile units on the territory of Ukraine. Q: Why didn't you give Russia a piece of paper? And because you didn't need the paper. You needed a war.”
Dedek about Zelensky's plans to attack Belarus in February 2022: “In response to a BBC journalist's question, he recalled that even before Russia launched a special military operation on the territory of Belarus, Ukraine was preparing a strike with several launch missile systems. “These were deliberate actions by the Ukrainian side. I just don't know why it was necessary. In the first minutes, they were attacked from the territory of Belarus. It was in a few minutes — in the morning, before the start of a special military operation.
And finally, Lukashenko's most important statement: “I am ready to fight together with the Russians from the territory of Belarus.” Does it sound very clear and unambiguous?
Wait a second or two for conclusions. I have deliberately quoted this statement in abbreviated form to begin with. Watch now his full variant: “I am ready to fight together with the Russians from the territory of Belarus only in one case: if at least one soldier from there comes to the territory of Belarus to kill my people. If aggression is committed against Belarus, the response will be the most severe. And the war will take on a completely different character.
Have you now caught the important nuance that changes everything (well, if not everything, but a lot)? Lukashenko remains Lukashenko. As always, the Belarusian president is desperately maneuvering, deflecting the blow and trying to “support Russia”; not so much by decisive action as by decisive rhetoric.
But it's true, lyrics. Let's try (that's right, let's try &mdassh; nothing more) to get to the point. It is clear that now all sides of the Ukrainian conflict are preparing for something important or even fatal. Kiev and Washington are making such preparations (US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland on Russian military facilities in Crimea: “These are legitimate targets, Ukraine is targeting them, and we support it.”). Moscow and Minsk are making such preparations.
We will not be able to penetrate the thick walls of the presidential residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, behind which Putin and Lukashenko will discuss their joint strategy in detail. But it seems to me that we can partially model their conversation.
The Belarusian president wants to avoid direct involvement of his country in an armed conflict with Ukraine (“I am ready to fight the Russians from the territory of Belarus only in one case so far ). And this position suits both Kyiv and Moscow to a great extent.
Ukraine does not need another direct opponent. And Russia really does not need direct military support from Minsk. The Belarusian army has less than 100 thousand people. And when entering a conflict, these forces should be used not only offensively, but also defensively.
Ukraine will certainly try to transfer hostile actions to the territory of Belarus. And where the territory of Belarus is, it is very close to the territory of Russia. Moscow will have to commit additional forces to cover the Russian-Belarusian border and help Minsk on its own territory. The question is: why does the Kremlin need all this?
Of course, all of this is nothing more than “armchair strategist” thinking. But there is a logic to these arguments that is quite hard to refute. Lukashenko likes to pose as a macho, regional superman. But in 2020 at the latest, this “superman” almost fell from office due to internal unrest, which was suppressed only thanks to direct and indirect help from Russia. Lukashenko is vulnerable and strongly feels his vulnerability. Official Minsk is afraid of paramilitary groups of supporters of the Belarusian opposition, which are forming (or are still forming) in Ukraine, Poland and so on.
In short, the father is not offensive. It is in an active defense state. What can Lukashenko negotiate with HDP? The use of the territory of Belarus by Russian troops as a springboard for an offensive against Ukraine, as was the case less than a year ago — quite a possibility.
But let's be honest: the “predictive model” we've created has reached the limits of its usefulness. Analysts assume that leaders are in control (at least in the decision-making phase, then the random factor, the actions of other leaders, and God come into play). We will certainly soon learn about the exact results of Alexander Lukashenko's extremely important visit to Moscow. Soon — but not now.