The success of the militants should not be overestimated
Taliban militants (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) continue their offensive and conquer new settlements in Afghanistan. The city of Kunduz, an important political and military center in the north of the country, once fell. The escalation of tensions and the success of the terrorists have led to the activation of external players. The Americans attacked the gunmen with B -52 aircraft – against the background of the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. We talked to an expert about the reasons for the new round of conflict and its possible prospects.
Photo: AP
The Taliban launched on August 8 in the morning an active offensive on Kunduz, around which they had long associated and built manpower and military equipment. By noon, they were already in control of the city center, pro-government forces, including the army and police, were forced to retreat to a nearby airport, and locals began to leave their homes in panic as gunmen set fire to the local market.
Security forces and officials captured on At the moment, the city's Taliban are unanimously talking about the lack of adequate assistance from official Kabul, while reports of mass executions of militants are increasing.
For the Taliban, the conquest of Kunduz is not only a strategic but also an important symbolic victory. The militants had conquered the city in the past, but for a long time they could not keep it under control: the active participation of a foreign contingent was affected. In 2015 and 2016, they managed to get Kunduz back twice, but again – not for long.
A spokesman for the Taliban's political office told Al Jazeera television on Sunday's offense that there was no ceasefire agreement with the Afghan government and warned of further US intervention in the internal conflict, signaling the terms of the Doha peace agreement signed in February 2020 in Qatar. . The terms of the agreement include the withdrawal of all US and NATO troops, the Taliban's commitment to prevent al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) from operating in areas under their control, and further negotiations with official Kabul. The shortcomings of the agreement were already evident at that time – the Afghan government was practically excluded from it. No wonder terrorists are now actively using it in their rhetoric.
At the same time, as Andrei Serenko, a leading expert at the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, noted in an interview with MK, despite the Taliban's clear achievements, their scope should not be exaggerated. How to consider them established.
“There has been a war in Afghanistan for many years and I would not dramatize the current offensive compared to past clashes: someone will always take individual cities, then return them to the other side, etc. In addition, the powerful Taliban propaganda should not be forgotten,” the expert reminded. In fact, at the moment the Taliban do not control as much territory as they would like to present to the world, in particular the administrative center of the province of Nimroz – the city of Zaranj with a population of less than 50,000 – in fact it is large villages – Kunduz, the city of Talugan in Takhar province, the capital of Jowzjan province (city of Shibargan) and Sari-pul.
However, it should be recalled that many of these settlements have in fact been under siege by the Taliban for a long time. Almost all of them are located in the north of the country, and in fact we see the continuation of the June offensive, when their attacks in the south suffocated. Such crucial provinces as Kandahar, Herat, Helmand remained under the control of the authorities. And for them it means more than busy cities. In Kandahar, for example, Spin-Balduk crosses a “corridor” that allows Pakistanis to penetrate. Maintaining control over this is therefore the primary goal of the Afghan leadership. At the same time, Andrei Serenko recalls that these cities are falling where field commanders and leaders of the former Northern Alliance were influenced, who in turn had serious conflicts with President Ashraf Ghani. The common enemy is now helping to intensify dialogue between Kabul and former Northern Alliance leaders.
The fact that the Taliban's breach of the agreement proves to the world community that Ghani also plays cards with them.
In terms of US action, the expert said, the United States will now use tactics in Afghanistan similar to Russian tactics in Syria, where local security forces are fighting on the ground and foreign aircraft, they say, in aerial areas.
“Biden has given clear orders for the systematic use of aviation. And this is dangerous for the Taliban, because they are afraid of air raids, “Serenko recalls. – Even though they see a combat helicopter in the sky, which simply does nothing, they scatter in panic, not to mention strategic B-52 bombers. Two hundred fighters of the group were killed in a weekend near Shibargan as a result of a raid – a serious loss for them. “… If former militants ever tried to gain the loyalty of the population, now that they have lost their labor power, they have taken measures that are unpopular with ordinary people. For example, the opening of prisons to replenish their ranks.
