Without gas, but with American weapons
Moldovan and Ukrainian bloggers found the US Army in Chisinau. According to telegram channels, four hundred Marines are accommodated in civilian clothes in one of the capital's hotels. If we add to this information about the US Air Force aircraft landing in Chisinau with a load of military equipment, a reasonable question arises: who is Moldova going to fight? MK experts shared their versions.
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Not all experts agreed to speak on this topic. In Chisinau and Tiraspol, some political analysts abstained from commenting on the lack of information. But something is known for sure. For example, on September 26, a US Air Force military transport aircraft landed at Chisinau Airport with military equipment for the Moldovan National Army. The entire batch of $ 5 million worth of military equipment will be delivered to several parties by the end of 2021. What kind of cargo has arrived is not reported. It is believed that there may be small arms, communications equipment, light artillery and Hummer vehicles.
According to the official version, American technology is needed to “improve interoperability when participating in international peacekeeping operations.” But where are the guarantees that it will be used exclusively for peacekeeping? No one gives guarantees. And for a while, Moldova is officially a constitutional neutral state. Why does it need “interoperability” with the armies of NATO member states? Direct military supplies from the United States are already violating the country's neutral status. It was with this kind of “peacekeeping” that it all started in Georgia and Ukraine. We all remember how it ended. It's not all over. By the way, as stated on the website of the US Embassy in Moldova, of the 5 million, the Moldovan government has set aside only one. The rest is a gift from “partners”? Just for beautiful eyes?
This whole alarming militaristic uproar is taking place against the background of a real catastrophe. The eternal flame at the Monument of Military Glory was extinguished in Chisinau. A haunting event that resembles the fall of the Red Flag over the Kremlin in 1991. But everything is explained in a banal way: there is little gas in the country. In this context, a state of emergency was declared in Moldova for 30 days. And the inhabitants of the capital light candles at the Memorial so that the Eternal Flame still does not go out. Okay, of course, but it doesn't solve the gas problem. In winter, the people of Moldova will have to freeze. Not surprisingly, one of the most pressing issues on Moldovan Internet forums is now the cost of firewood.
However, is there a link between the gas crisis and the intensification of military cooperation between Moldova and the US and NATO? There is, and most directly, according to the famous historian and writer, a native of Odessa Lev Vershinin. The coming winter will most likely be very challenging for Moldova and Ukraine. And what is the universal way for unpopular politicians to stay in power, to transfer people's hatred from themselves to someone else? That's right, war.
– This is an insider straight from Chisinau. – says Lev Vershinin. – There is such a hotel complex Zentrum. High class according to Chisinau standards, insanely expensive. Located in the heart of the city, five minutes walk from the government district (and in a historic building from the 19th century – M.P.). Due to a pandemic and the absence of guests, he was temporarily “frozen” a few months ago. And suddenly, in parallel with the arrival of the first, which was widely talked about, and the second and third, which were not specifically advertised, American aircraft with military equipment, guests appeared there. And so much that they even had to open a case that was considered a backup. The guests are the same type of guys: stout, in civilian clothes that don't suit them very well, speaking English. What is interesting: in the column “length of stay” the date of departure is not stated by anyone. Arrival is indicated, departure is not. Consider this information from the receptionist. Here is such a fact in connection with everyone else.
– I will express my opinion. I believe that war is logically inevitable. The Russian leadership will do everything in its power to avoid this, at the cost of any concessions. Except for two: he will not suck up Belarus yet and will enter into an open alliance against China. In my opinion, the situation may develop as follows. Sandu is completely dependent on the West. They are under pressure completely openly. And he has no options. He is a reasonable person. Moscow has very few claims against Moldova. A compromise can be found. And she could negotiate and she is even ready to negotiate. But the West has set a condition for Chisinau: no concessions! They are really there in a very difficult situation. And in this situation, a variant with Transnistria is possible. Of course, under no circumstances will Sandu launch an attack on Transnistria alone. If Kiev, which is also in a very difficult situation, dares to worsen the situation, then it is very likely to open a second front in Transnistria.
– Moscow can not save Transnistria. He is already negotiating its smooth delivery. The keyword is “smooth.” Moscow itself has found itself in a position where sooner or later it will be forced to fight openly, but just at the moment when it will be least advantageous for it. It is not clear what he will do. The Russian Federation has no common border with Transnistria. Flying planes over the territory of Ukraine is a war. The involvement of air forces or strategic missile forces is also a war. And no one will bomb Chisinau with strategic missiles. Turns out it's another zugzwang.
– If the Kievans attack the Donbas, they lose nothing. If they recapture Donetsk or Horlivka or something else, then even if they are stopped later, they will be sure of the patriotic rise of the population of Ukraine. And it will help you get through the colder months. If they lose, and this will only happen if the Russian Federation really helps Donbas, then they will not lose anything in this case. The whole of Europe is in the ears, Russia is the aggressor and so on. Again, you can go through a few challenging months and even get something from the curators for courage.
– I think yes. The probability of such a scenario is 40 percent. It depends a lot here if the Americans allow it. He sees it as appropriate. The West is playing its own game. In the summer of 2014, I handed over my analysis of the situation and possible scenarios for its development to the authorities (at that time there was another general who dealt with these issues). This work was ordered for me and all obligations to me personally were fully fulfilled. But since then, they have acted on the worst-case scenario I've described. I'm not happy. I'm sad, bitter. But what can I do?
– The Americans have a constant motive: to show Moscow its place again. And to show others that there is no hope for Russia. Much is now being decided in November next year, when elections to the new Central Committee will take place in China. It will be a serious preliminary battle, as a result of which it will be seen whether Comrade Xi will remain the leader of the PRC and whether China's course will remain unchanged. But before that, anything can happen. If Donbass is removed, it will be a very painful kick for Russia. And the “Kievans” came to power so inexperienced, unprepared, that they offended so many people that if they lost power, they would be tried. They are strangers to Kiev's elites. Therefore, he must not lose power. Many will be imprisoned. Therefore, Zelensky may order an attack on Donbas if the Americans do not object. And if that happens, then an attack on Transnistria from Moldova will be very likely. And then the Russian Federation has two options: to fight on two fronts or to “merge” Transnistria.
However, one more scenario, expressed by Moldovan bloggers, is not excluded. The attack is not preparing for Transnistria, but for Odessa. If, after the start of a new war in Donbas, an angry “Russian bear” goes to destroy everything in its path and “liberate” Kharkov, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Nikolaev, etc., after the Donbas, the Americans hope to keep Odessa. The Marines, who are parachuted into our former “pearl by the sea” as peacemakers, will come in handy here. By the way, two American military facilities are already being built in Ochakov and Ilyichevsk, legendary as “training centers”, and in fact bases. By the way, the Ukrainian constitution prohibits the deployment of foreign military bases in Ukraine. But it says nothing about “training centers”. After the loss of Crimea, the United States hopes to catch at least in Odessa. It seems that the coming winter in Moldova and Ukraine will be hot despite the interruption of gas supplies.