Poliologist Fyodor Lukyanov: “Today's realism is the willingness to continue with upheavals”
Being at the epicenter of political cataclysms of historical scale, it is difficult to understand what exactly is happening. You only see what is shaking around. But why it shakes, where it shakes, how long it will continue to shake and what will remain intact when the underground and aboveground geopolitical upheavals finally end – all this is usually beyond human understanding.
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Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, director of research of the Valdai Club, is also no “superman” from political science, but an ordinary person deprived of the telepathic gift. But he has another gift – the ability to penetrate into the very essence of events, to separate the main from the private, the grain from the chaff, the ability to quickly formulate insightful conclusions to which everyone else must go and go.< /p>
And also Fedor Lukyanov, who remains a fairly significant figure in the modern Russian political system, he is not afraid to share these prescient conclusions of his. Here's what a respected political scientist, for example, thinks about the interim results of the NWO and what lies ahead for Russia and the world.
– I estimate such chances as quite high, unfortunately. With the involvement of various interests – direct and indirect participants – the conflict took on a very significant scale. The Ukrainian question itself, and of course it exists, is only part of it.
Ukraine seems to have become a kind of testing ground, if you will, a construction site where a new international hierarchy is being built. And no one hides that anymore. But such a process is obviously lengthy and tedious, so estimating time perspectives is almost useless. There may be breaks, but hardly for long. In general, I am afraid that in a year there will be something to discuss on this topic.
— Many different materials are produced under the Rand Corporation brand, it is really an influential and very professional analytical center, where they try to look at the situation from different angles. The report you mention is the view of specific employees, respected specialists, which can be classified as moderate. And they, yes, pay attention to the risks that the prolongation of the conflict brings to America, especially with regard to unexpected plot twists, and they can never be ruled out.
But in the same Rand, especially in other centers, there is also an opposite view – war until the strategic defeat of Russia. And this view dominates.
Objectively, the United States bears the least cost of all those actively participating in the confrontation. And the potential benefit. There are some signs that the risk assessment is gradually shifting to a slightly higher level of concern, but so far it's just a breeze.
– I had in mind a very specific thing, a political one: the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, as understood in Europe, makes it possible to put aside differences, marginalize dissidents and rally under the slogan “enemy at the gates”. And it works even if the cracks are visible. But they do not expand, they are held by the cement of this conflict.
Once hostilities cease, no matter how they end, or rather where they end, the internal strife in Europe will surface. On various topics. Precisely for the reason that Europe is objectively bearing the enormous costs of the breakdown of the usual socio-economic model that has allowed it to flourish for decades. The continuation of the armed confrontation freezes the internal contradictions in Europe, but it is not forever.
— I am not an optimist in the sense that the world has entered a period of transformation and upheaval, a certain cycle has ended and the transition to another will inevitably be accompanied by cataclysms. The Russian-Ukrainian one is not the first, although the scale was unprecedented for many decades, but certainly not the last.
There is no need to wait for a return to the old order or the establishment of a new one, you just need to understand it well. This understanding is realism, as well as readiness to continue upheavals.
– They are closely connected, I already mentioned it above – Ukraine has become a space for clarifying relations between the “big” in which Russia is an active participant.< /p>
For the United States or even Europe, Ukraine can, cynically speaking, be considered a negotiation, that is, its fate for the fate of the West is important, but not decisive. Due to cultural, historical and internal factors, the outcome of the battle for Ukraine is of great importance to Russia. In any case, this is a widely held and deeply held view among us.
Failure in Ukraine will hit Russia's position in the world hard as the (non-Western) world evaluates power and effectiveness – they could/they couldn't. Especially since they themselves challenged the Western Goliath.
But success in Ukraine, especially if incomplete and achieved at too great a cost, would not necessarily automatically mean Russia's rise in the world hierarchy. In addition, this story can be viewed as follows: in recent years, at least since mid-2010, Russia has declared itself as a global player, especially in the Middle East, but not only. This was generally accepted by all, although many were not happy.
And now the West has locked Russia into a local problem, forcing it to spend a lot of effort and money on a problem that is not of the greatest global importance. That means he sent her down a floor. Of course, all this is speculative thinking, it can turn differently. But the fact is that Russia is now completely focused on the Ukrainian issue and is forced to isolate its other demands in the rest of the world. Be that as it may, there is no turning back. The position will need to be rebuilt. And of course that will be much easier if the campaign ends successfully.
– As for modernization – not much in my opinion yet. I didn't mean, of course, the signs of the comfortable life we'd just been enjoying for the previous ten or fifteen years. We are talking about the efficiency of the state and economic structure, the military organization, which needs a new transformation.
The world is already changing very quickly and we cannot keep up with the pathos of traditionalism and conservative aspirations. The campaign and the economic war that accompanies it are forcing us to quickly reorganize our lives, but so far only the most basic things are being read.
— As I said, this is partially true. The importance of one task is so great that all others recede into the background. And that must be experienced, i.e. solve this problem so that I can later work on others again.
— As for the last nail, I wouldn't rush. Heavy crutch – yes. But we still have to work and work on the coffin.
The world order was headed for a crisis even without the decisions made a year ago. In a sense, these decisions by Moscow itself are just a product of the crisis. Like many other manifestations.
Was it possible to wait for the accelerated degradation of international systems without resorting to such drastic actions, just to wait for the corpse of world hegemony to float by? I don't know, maybe it would be a long wait.
I would venture to say that, contrary to the statements of Russian leaders, especially the president himself, that we have no choice, the situation contained options for behavior. And assuming a smoother game. However, this can no longer be verified and proven. Now the game will be retired and it would be unforgivable to leave before the world order finally stops working. Russia appears to have contributed decisively to this, but others will reap the benefits. Since we have risked it, we should not despair before the bet is played.
– No, that's not clear. Whether something that can be called a device will even come is unclear. Long-term instability begins based on the interaction of so many players of varying caliber and aspirations. And it can be quite a stable picture, such constant upheavals, but one can adapt to it.
Well, I'm sure that in the next few years or even longer, selfishness and concern only for one's own needs, securing one's own development will be an absolute must for everyone, no matter how beautifully packaged it is.
– China is certainly carefully studying the military component of the conflict, but even more so – the punishing economic one. How to avoid something like this, if Beijing has to go into a sharp conflict with the United States, what write-off mechanisms can be used.
By the way, the Americans do not hide the fact that they expect sanctions against Russia in order to intimidate China. And in a sense it worked, the PRC thinks and calculates. However, Beijing does not intend to abandon any of its strategic goals.
“I don't understand economics very well, so I'm speaking as a layman here. Yes, I was pleasantly surprised. The resilience and adaptability of our economic system gives us hope for the best, although it is clear that sanctions will not go unnoticed.
“I don't think there is a chance of complete success. The “neutrals” are very upset about the US trying to dictate how they should behave. They want to have a free hand and decide for themselves what and how to do in the situation of the blockade of Russia from the western side. I think that, as with the West in the previous stages, in the non-Western world they know how to evaluate the benefits. And if it exists, no hegemons will force it to be abandoned. Tacking – yes, losing what floats in your hands – no.
– Sanctions like knockout, knocking down didn't work. Penalties such as long holding in a match will have a cumulative effect. Not fatal, but escalating, especially in the next two or three years.
— He was growing. This, as I said at the beginning, is a large-scale conflict about the distribution of places in the world hierarchy. And that is always dangerous. And in itself the fact of a creeping escalation between two nuclear powers, one of which is fighting directly, the other indirectly, is a rather unprecedented situation with different scenarios up to a direct clash. Such a reckoning was inevitable. But the timing and forms could have been different, probably less dangerous.
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