Experts assessed the prospects for a new confrontation between Moscow and Kazan
The State Council of the Republic of Tatarstan refused to support the bill, which envisages renaming the heads of the Federation Entities to the heads of the respective regions. Let us remind you that today the highest representative of the republic is called “president”. And this is the only region in the country where this position bears this name. We asked the experts to assess the prospects for a new confrontation between Moscow and Kazan.
Photo: Lilia Sharlovskaya
For information: the bill in question was submitted to the Duma in September this year by the head of the Federation Council Committee for Constitutional Legislation, Andrej Klishas, and Pavel Krasheninnikov, a member of the State Duma. In addition to unifying the name of the highest office of the constituent body of the Russian Federation, the document contains many other innovations that did not appeal to the regional deputies.
“In our opinion, some provisions of the bill are in conflict with the foundations of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation as a democratic federal rule of law,” said the head of the State Council and Local Government Committee. of Tatarstan, Albert Khabibullin. – We believe that the submitted version of the bill deviates from the established general principles of the basic regulation of the activities of state bodies of constituents. “According to the authors of the project, only one president – the President of Russia – should remain in Russia. >
In the complex history of relations between Moscow and Kazan, there have been many cases in which the Federal Center has made concessions to the republic. Will Moscow break Kazan this time?
– Such a reaction of the State Council of Tatarstan is quite natural. This is a very important issue for the republic, a question of national identity. Of course, Tatarstan will try to show its “I” here. I would like to remind you, however, that Moscow did not back down when it came to extending the agreement on the definition of powers between the republic and the federal center. It ended in 2017 and was not renewed. Moscow did not back down when the amendments to the Education Act were adopted: teaching the language of the titular nation is no longer compulsory. So Moscow often insisted. The outcome of this disagreement is difficult to predict. But in no case will the disapproval of the legislative assembly of one entity of the federation prevent the adoption of the law.
– State policy is tightening in all spheres, so I am not sure that this time Moscow Kazan will make concessions. In addition, it cannot be overlooked that Moscow attaches great importance to political symbols today. This is especially felt in foreign policy: any symbolic action that affects the prestige of the state is followed by an immediate reaction. Sometimes not very adequate – from the series “From Cannon to Sparrows.” The symbols of a powerful, united and indivisible state are very important to the federal government today. Therefore, at this stage, Tatarstan is unlikely to avoid this unification. The Federal Center has a lot of pressure levers on the regional elite. He now has no opportunity for the independent policy pursued by Tatarstan in the 1990s. The weight categories are now incomparable.
– I think Moscow will most likely give way to Tatarstan. Make an exception in the law or postpone solving the problem. It will postpone it until 2024, for example. It could be a good compromise for Moscow. In exchange for agreement on this symbolic question, he can strengthen his position on other issues. It is related, for example, to the ownership of shares in companies that are owned by the republic. I think that Moscow will go exactly this way: it will agree with the Council of State, but it will demand substantial, not symbolic concessions. Anyway, on the site of the Kremlin, I would do it. I would estimate the probability of such a scenario at 70 percent. And he left 30 percent that in this example, Moscow would like to show the increased role of the federal government in relation to the regional one.