An attempt to decipher them
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov gave the first interview after his appointment to the additional position of commander of the Joint Group of Forces in the NVO zone.
< p> There are conversations that are light, direct, imbued with the individuality of an important character with whom the conversation is taking place. And there are interviews that are emphatically official, with clearly calibrated wording, without the slightest attempt to flirt with the audience.
Army General Valery Gerasimov's interview with “Arguments and Facts” clearly belongs to this second category. And that is quite understandable. The holder of two (or rather three important positions – Gerasimov is also the First Deputy Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu) did not have the task of pleasing anyone or impressing the public with the brilliance of his wit. It seems to me that he was meant to send some important political signals – but not to everyone, but only to those in the field enough to read and decipher them.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
In the “preliminary” interview of the Chief of the General Staff, its author, my former colleague from MK and now journalist Aif Viktor Sokirko, mentioned its brevity. To this I add: most of Valery Gerasimov's short interview is not devoted to today, but to yesterday or even the day before yesterday.
Officially, Valery Gerasimov's dialogue with the journalist was timed to coincide with the 260th anniversary of the General Staff. And so the current head of the “brain of the Russian army” looked into history: he mentioned Empress Catherine II, who initiated the creation of the General Staff, about the first of his predecessors, Count Zakhar Chernyshev, about the difficult everyday life of the General Staff after the 1917 revolution and during the Great Patriotic War .. .
And this excursion into history should not be taken as a “side dish” but as a hint: the current international crisis should not be taken as an isolated episode, but as another link in a long chain of crises, which “mastered” the Russian army.
But back to today's link. Here are the statements of the new NWO commander that I believe are key. “In order to stabilize the situation, protect new territories and carry out offensive operations, the General Staff needed to implement partial mobilization plans.”
Did you pay attention to this wording – “carry out offensive actions”? Let's not take this as a clear statement of intent. Like Gerasimov, he firmly promised to launch a strong offensive soon. Serious military leaders do no such thing in media interviews, if only because those interviews are read, even by those who are planned to attack. But what's said is said. The words about “offensive operations” definitely appeared in Valery Gerasimov's interview for a reason.
We continue to decipher important public signals from the Chief of the General Staff. In connection with the conversation about partial mobilization, Valery Gerasimov first mentioned that “such events have not happened since the Great Patriotic War” and then said: “It should be noted that the system of mobilization training in our country was not fully functional. adapted to new modern economic relations. So I had to fix everything as I went along.”
Important, very important recognition. And the significance of this recognition is that it was done by the Chief of the General Staff. As stated by Valery Gerasimov below, the main goal of partial mobilization was achieved: “As a result of well-coordinated and professional actions of the officers of the General Staff in cooperation with the bodies of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, 300 thousand citizens who were in reserve were called up for military service. But this basic objective was achieved at a very considerable cost. I would formulate the main message of the NGSH signal here as follows: lessons are understood, learned, taken into account.
And here is the most important of Valery Gerasimov's signals: “Current Russia has not yet known such a level and intensity of hostility.” I didn't know, but I know now and I will know in the future. Army General Gerasimov: “The plan for the construction and development of the armed forces of the Russian Federation …. is approved by the President of the Russian Federation and may be modified in case of existing and new threats to the military security of the Russian Federation change.” Today, such threats have become the aspirations of the North Atlantic Alliance to expand at the expense of Finland and Sweden, as well as to use Ukraine as a tool to wage a hybrid war against our country.
Then. reading these lines, I thought for a long time: is it a coincidence that the list of threats first includes the Baltic direction, and only then “the use of Ukraine as a tool to conduct a hybrid war against our country”?
Am I getting too carried away with “deciphering hidden political signals” and looking for them even where they don't exist? Maybe yes maybe no. We simply do not have enough information to come to any definitive conclusion.
However, we must consider the following information. Russian Ambassador to Estonia Vladimir Lipaev, leaving the place of his foreign business trip due to the acute diplomatic conflict between Moscow and Tallinn, on the air of the program Soloviev Live: “Estonia is actively arming, but it is not clear why. It is planned to place here the most modern types of conventional weapons capable of keeping St. Petersburg in the crosshairs, and a medium-range anti-missile defense system is being created.”
It is unlikely that these two talks were coordinated. I don't think it's even just “hard” but definitely not coordinated. But on the other hand, their temporal coincidence allows us to get a more complete and clear picture of the dynamics of what is happening. In a month it will be one year since the start of SVO. But this anniversary will not be a reason to say: the hardest part is behind us. The most difficult, the most difficult, the most dramatic still awaits Russia (and not only Russia).