Diplomatic and economic measures may be enough
Lithuania's ban on the transit of large quantities of cargo from Russia to the Kaliningrad region across its territory will affect the supply of troops in the region as well as the Baltic Fleet. Aleksey Leonkov, a military analyst and editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, spoke about whether this could fundamentally affect the combat capability of the Baltic Fleet and whether Russia is ready for a military response to Lithuania.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation The delivery of cargo to the Baltic Fleet will not be affected.
“Nevertheless, they do not block the sea route across the Baltic,” says Leonkov. – And it is unlikely that they would take this step at all, because it would actually mean declaring war on Russia. The supply ban will have a greater impact on the development of the Kaliningrad region.
There are a number of factors to consider when it comes to our possible military response. Our Foreign Ministry has already resolutely told the representatives of Lithuania and the EU that they are violating the agreements we had when Russia recognized Lithuania as an independent state. Then we were promised undisturbed transit to the Kaliningrad region.
According to the expert, the military response will be the last measure that Russia will have to take if diplomatic and economic levers do not work towards Lithuania.
– And there are still many such economic levers towards Lithuania. , – specifies Leonkov. “In addition, they should not be applied gradually, but immediately, so that this country is shocked by our actions. If that does not help, of course, military measures will have to be taken to ensure a smooth passage to the Russian enclave.
Many believe that Article 5 of the NATO Collective Security Treaty will have to enter into force in this case. This is interpreted as a mandatory entry into the Alliance-wide war if one or more NATO countries are attacked.
In fact, the wording of this article is not as clear-cut as many think. There is no talk of NATO automatically entering the war for any country. Everything is subject to a number of conditions. And another big question is whether NATO countries are ready to engage in a war with Russia for Lithuania's interests, as they realize that such a war is likely to lead to a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons.
Aleksey Leonkov believes that in the current situation, Europe is not inclined to worsen the situation. In addition, Lithuania states that it has coordinated its actions with the EU. But Vilnius's statements have not yet been officially confirmed and the steps have not been supported.
– I think Leonkov says that diplomatic and economic leverage will be applied. But if they don't lead to a result, then here, as they say, if you don't talk to Lavrov, you'll deal with Shoig. Ukraine has already understood this …
Russian Security Council Secretary Patrushev said at a meeting in Kaliningrad: Russia will certainly respond that Lithuania is blocking supplies to the Kaliningrad region. Measures will be taken. However, he noted that this move by Lithuania, taken at the suggestion of the West, proves that it is not possible to believe not only in its oral but also in writing.