The Rational Logic of the Belarusian President's “Wars”
Poland has warned of the possibility of an “escalation of armed conflict” on its border with Belarus, and this is not necessarily a typical example of Warsaw's current tendency to exaggerate. Wherever you look, there is an impression: Alexander Lukashenko is completely derailed and strikes the air to the right and left in helpless rage. However, this impression has nothing to do with reality.
Photo: president.gov.by
The use of hordes of migrants as “missiles” at the European Union's borders, the refusal to supply electricity to Ukraine, the mass imprisonment of Belarusian citizens who find “banned content” on their phones, and even the recent closure of the local Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper – all these actions appear to be only impulsive. Lukashenko's mask of madness hides a well-thought-out strategic line that allows the Belarusian president not only to survive but also to win.
A well-known Minsk official recently told an anecdote about how an offender was hanged in a Belarusian village to instruct others. After the unfortunate man hung in the noose three days ago, the mayor gave permission to depose and bury him. To everyone's surprise, however, the hangman turned out to be alive. “How did you survive?” – the villagers asked the phenomenon. The phenomenon replied, “Well, the first day it was hard and then nothing – I got used to it!”
When I laughed a lot, I suddenly realized that the anecdote had an important political significance – a double . The “hanged man, but a survivor” is not just the Belarusian people with their traditions of law enforcement. Lukashenko himself is also a “hangman, but a survivor.”
How did you manage to get out? Not at the expense of his charm, the strength of his arguments, or the grace of his political maneuvers. Lukashenko survived his absolute willingness to use force and raise rates indefinitely. When I visited Minsk in August this year, I was amazed at how normal, quiet and even peaceful the city looked. But what is behind this normality? After suppressing a coup attempt last summer, Batka did not start living on the principle that “everything has passed and everything is forgotten.” Security forces continue to systematically dismantle the video archive filmed during the days of mass protests. Those identifiable participants who have not yet “received what they want” are invited to “involuntary rest” in the form of imprisonment on Akrestsin Street and other similar institutions. And such measures are not based solely on the desire for revenge.
Lukashenko purposefully creates an atmosphere of fear based on three principles: punishing the disloyal, encouraging the loyal, and raising the “price of incitement” to unacceptable values.
Let me explain how it works in practice, on the example of the recent situation with the forced termination of work in Belarus “Komsomolskaya Truth”. Komsomolskaya Truth was a publication popular with Minsk officials. However, in the critical days of August 2020, the newspaper, from Lukashenko's point of view, did not show proper devotion to the “party and government”. As soon as the newspaper was replaced again earlier last month and described the killer of the Belarusian security officer as a “good guy in the past”, they were immediately forced to close. Here is the punishment for disloyalty.
And here is the reward for loyalty. The basis of Lukashenko's power is the loyalty of security officials, who naturally did not like the disrespectful approach to their deceased comrade. The President of Belarus responded to such disrespect with accentuated and even hypertrophied harshness and showed: you are protecting me and I am protecting you. One by one we are like a stone wall!
And finally, the increase in the price of sedition. I will give the example I heard in the summer in Minsk – before the story of the deceased security officer. Imagine you are a respected woman – with a good job, a good salary and a family with children. Representatives of the “authorities” stop you on the street, they are forced to show you your smartphone, found there in the list of “anti-state” telegram channels and sent to arrest for 15 days as they pass through the court. What will be your actions when you are released? The peculiarities of the Belarusian national mentality are such that most of those who have passed such a test will remove all “bad” telegram channels and continue to stay at a safe distance from politics.
Lukashenko uses a similar method to work with his perpetrators from abroad. What is the worst nightmare for Lithuania or Poland, for example? The dilution of their European (in the old sense of the word) societies by aliens of other religious and ethnic origins. The Belarusian president is carefully creating conditions that allow these people from outside mass attacks on the border.
Photos: Stock Footage
What is Ukraine's worst nightmare? Prospect of freezing due to lack of energy. The Belarusian president is also cautiously increasing the likelihood of such a deficit by refusing to supply official Kiev with electricity. And to make Zelensky even more understanding, Lukashenko sends him transparent help and complains bitterly that Putin allegedly did not invite him to the Crimea.
The result: both in the eyes of Warsaw and in the eyes of Kiev, Lukashenko no longer seems like an easy target to dig into with impunity. Cynical? Not that word. But are Poland and Ukraine pursuing less cynical or aggressive policies?
The moral component of the question can be safely dropped from parentheses. It remains in those parentheses that what looks like an emotional spasm and a series of crazy actions actually works. Lukashenko cannot even dream of anything else in the current situation. Or, by the way, no, maybe.
I quote information from news agencies after a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and Belarus: “Lukashenko on the situation on the border with Poland: if Belarus makes a mistake, it will immediately drag Russia into the situation.” “The old man has adjusted it. In his submission, it now reads: set up and conquer.
I really hope that Moscow does not fall into this trap. “that they won't invite him there, and stubbornly don't go there and send Belavie planes. And I assure you: if he doesn't push at all, he won't be sent.