The Taliban's march north cannot be avoided, but it must be delayed
A delegation from the political office of the radical Taliban (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia) arrives in Moscow for talks . This was announced by the official representative of the Qatari political office of the movement Suheil Shahin. According to him, the main purpose of the visit is to discuss the situation in northern Afghanistan.
A member of the delegation noted that the seizure of Afghanistan by military means was not a Taliban policy. “We have reaffirmed our commitment to a political solution here in Moscow,” said Suheil Shahin.
“MK” asked an expert, a Russian religious scientist, professor of the Department of World Culture at Moscow State Language University Roman Silantyev, to answer the question of whether the agreement reached during the visit could guarantee the security of the Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan, including Russian military ally in the CSTO in Tajikistan.
“In such cases, each state is based primarily on its own benefit,” the expert explained, “and Russia is no exception. If he believes that the Taliban can work with more dangerous terrorists, he has a right. In Afghanistan, there is a choice between ISIS (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia – “MK”) and this radical movement. There were no more forces left. In such a situation, the choice is obvious. Although the Taliban is a terrorist organization, it is less dangerous than ISIS.
– How can you believe the statement of the representative of the Qatar political office of the movement that they are not going to invade Afghanistan by military means means and trying to find a civilized solution to the problem? p>
– You know, there are cases of policy changes in some structures. Everyone remembers the sect of assassins in Islam who chopped up their opponents so that they even found themselves in the folklore of many nations. And now it's quite peaceful, not a sect, but a sign of self-elites. Chocolate is made, universities are opening. The Bolsheviks were once a forbidden organization, and then they began sitting at the same table with them and leading negotiations. Likewise, the Taliban could theoretically change. Of course, this may not happen, but then there are methods of influencing these organizations. If the question is “ISIS” or “Taliban”, then the first is dangerous because it has wider coverage. The Taliban for Afghanistan may go to Central Asia and their aggression is targeted at certain nations. Ishilovites is a completely international terrorist organization and sets out a plan to rule the world.
– Is there a real threat to the Taliban from countries bordering Afghanistan?
– Yes, absolutely. And if there is a question of how to postpone the war and the invasion of the Taliban, measures must be taken. This is a sensible policy. Personally, I assume that sooner or later there will be an invasion. Or ISIS or the Taliban. It is very difficult to reach an agreement with organizations such as the Taliban, it is even more difficult to abide by these agreements. You need to clearly understand who you are dealing with and not create illusions on this score. Although, of course, there are situations where it is advantageous for them to abide by the agreement.
– Will Russia be forced to intervene if there is an invasion of its allies in Central Asia?
– Firstly, we have the Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO. And secondly, Russia will have to participate because it is easier to defend itself there, on the border with Afghanistan, than, for example, on Russia's border with Kazakhstan, which is much longer and much worse protected. It is much easier to cover the passes in the mountains and in the desert area. If you do not fight there, the moment will come when you will have to fight in the Volga region.
In fact, this is not the first attempt to talk to the Taliban. There are absolutely no intrigues. I do not see any strange turns in diplomacy, in this respect it is quite predictable. Once such a situation arises, we must try to postpone the unpleasant result as much as possible, which is, as must be admitted, quite probable.
– Did it turn out that even if an agreement is reached, you can't relax?
– Of course. Everything can change at any time, so you have to play on contradictions. It is necessary to strengthen our defenses, gather strength and properly motivate our Central Asian allies, who will, of course, be the first to suffer. And they will suffer greatly with the prospect of losing a large population and possibly part of the state. It may, of course, happen that the Taliban will dive into the war with ISIS for decades and everyone will breathe a sigh of relief. Or it may happen that in a few years Dushanbe will be attacked. It depends on a number of factors that cannot be predicted at present.