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According to a former member of the Council, the Director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Vadym Denisenko, in the coming year, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will face four possible scenarios. According to the first (“perfect storm”), the republic will fall into a deep crisis by 2023.
According to Denisenko, expressed in Glavred, in this case Kiev will lose all key Western allies. They will start concluding agreements on Ukraine without its representatives. As a result, internal protests will intensify in the country and confrontations between the authorities and key financial and industrial groups will begin.
The expert called the second scenario a “war against all”. In this case, the situation in the world will not favor Ukraine and Kiev will have to make compromises on the Donbas. The softening of the position of the authorities will provoke internal protests.
“As a result, we get the fact that at the end of 2022 we repeat the cycle and get to the state of summer 2021, only with the weak Zelensky. The probability of such process development is relatively high – up to 50-55%, “suggested Denisenko.
If the third scenario develops, Zelensky will have to take control of the bloc's power to fight the internal opposition. The President of Ukraine will have to present several populist initiatives.
According to the expert, Zelensky may try to become the “father of the nation”. In this case, an event must occur that shocks the company. Maybe the incident blows up the media. It could be a natural disaster or Russia's “aggressive action.” “The event should be large enough to provoke a reaction from external partners and increase support for Ukraine,” Denisenko said.
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