Russia should have a life after GDP
Putin “must remain president for as long as possible” – he made such a statement, the chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin told the truth. Pure truth from the point of view of Russia's political elite. One of the standard accusations made against him by Volodin's enemies is that this political heavyweight hides presidential ambitions. One way to disprove such allegations, which are extremely dangerous in Russian conditions, is to call on the VVP not to think about leaving its hours in the Kremlin. But because I have known Volodin for many years, I am convinced that considerations of political self-defense are secondary in this case. Most importantly, the speaker said openly: Putin should stay at the helm of a Russian political ship for as long as possible.
Photo: kremlin.ru
In a recent interview with my esteemed colleague from Kommersant, Elena Chernenkova, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitry Trenin, he presented one very precise and important wording: the economic system in the eyes of the majority of the population and at the same time being an indisputable arbitrator in intra-elite disputes. However, this ability is not passed on together with the president. “This last phrase of Trenin -” not communicated with the presidency “- and contains all the salt.
Why do you think that Ukraine is playing hard for time and is not really doing anything to break the stalemate of the crisis in Donbas? Because Kiev politicians “fit Putin.” In the Ukrainian elite, they operate within the following logic: we will not crush the current president of the Russian Federation and we will not overcome. But Putin is not forever. Sooner or later, he will leave, and Russia may then riot. Of course, he must not slip into it. But given all of Russia's previous history, the chances of unrest are very high. Therefore, we will sit and wait by the sea for the weather – or, more precisely, for a shift in the Kremlin.
The idea of ”new turbulences may occur after Putin” is also firmly at the heart of the Russian elite. That is why, through Volodin, he distributes his own political recipe: “We must all do everything we can to remain our president for as long as possible. Under it, Russia will be even stronger, people will live better, without shocks and wars. And even if problems arise, as we do with sanctions now, we will go through them much less painfully than in previous periods in our history. “
I believe, Vyacheslav Viktorovich, I certainly believe – but at the same time I am confused. A little further on, you said of Putin, “He does a lot for the country, and hardly anyone can be a more effective president than he is.” Because people cannot live forever, GDP will sooner or later leave the presidency. And then what? Are the best years in Russia's history left behind? Isn't there an even brighter future ahead of us? And does Vladimir Vladimirovich really want such a fate for our country?
By asking all these rhetorical questions, I open up to accusations of verbal balance. I'm sorry, Vyacheslav Viktorovich, there is such a thing. As a very experienced political player, you put it very carefully: “In today's world, there is no politician stronger than Putin.” This figurative “today” will sooner or later end, and politicians who will be “at least the size of GDP ’. But here is the key question of modern Russian politics: when exactly will the desired line between conventional “today and tomorrow” come?
In private talks in the Kremlin, they say that Putin will not be a life president and is just waiting for the moment when the transfer of supreme power will not endanger the country's stability. I definitely believe it again. But will such an ideal moment come in principle? Let's go back, for example, to 2008. With the transfer of presidential powers from Putin to Medvedev in May of that year, the horizon of Russian politics seemed cloudless. But as early as August, as a result of Saakashvili's adventures and the war with Georgia, everything was shrouded in storms. A few weeks later, a hurricane begins in the form of a global economic crisis.
Of course, it can be said that 2008 was particularly unlucky in terms of shocks. But no one abolished the law of the falling sandwich. In the long run, the political situation always develops according to the principle of “we only dream of peace”. Some dangerous challenges and threats are becoming a thing of the past, but are being replaced by new ones – unexpected, unpredictable, but no less dangerous. And what should Russia do – cling to Putin as long as possible? But this “as long as possible” will also end one day. And then what? And then Putin will tell us everything. But here's exactly what – I guess Vyacheslav Volodin himself doesn't know yet.