“The only question is when will this happen”
The military-political situation in Afghanistan in the context of the US retreat and the Taliban offensive (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation) tends to deteriorate sharply. This is what the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov. What awaits the country and its neighbors in the near future, said Israeli political scientist, former head of the Native Special Service Jakov Kedmi.
Photo: AP
” In Afghanistan, the Americans have shown themselves as they have everywhere for the past 50 years: they have achieved nothing, they have come, damn it, they have remained for 20 years, they have only strengthened the same Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation. – MK ). on the Direct Contact radio.
He said the United States was now shamefully leaving Afghanistan, leaving the country's authorities alone with the Taliban.
“Afghanistan is a country that can hardly exist as a single state, even if not under the rule of a religious dictatorship.” Another dictatorship is not planned there yet, “said the political scientist.
He noted that there are “too many different nations and too many internal problems in Afghanistan.” “It is a multi-ethnic and multi-tribal state. The main population groups in Afghanistan are the Pashtuns, about 40%, there are also Afghans, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Khazars.
” In order to own and rule Afghanistan, there must be representatives of all major religious communities, somehow united a common force, which is now the Taliban, Kedmi said.
He recalled that the Tajiks, unlike other nations in Central Asia, are Persian tribes that speak the Persian dialect, the rest are Turkish nations. The Tajiks are Sunni, just as there are almost no Shiites in almost all of Afghanistan. This keeps Afghanistan and Shiite Iran at a certain distance from each other, says the expert.
“There is hardly any serious force that will prevent the Taliban from taking over all of Afghanistan completely,” Yakov Kedmi said. “Perhaps there will be a temporary ceasefire in some areas, and then the Taliban will rule all of Afghanistan.” Emirate of ISIS (recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation).
The Taliban are not very different from ISIS … The atrocities committed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, which have already begun, are not very different from the atrocities of ISIS, “Kedmi said. He also noted that “fundamentalist Islam is never limited in its territory, it always seeks distribution, because it is a religious ideology that wants and at the instigation of the Almighty must spread the right Islam among all Muslims.”
Kedmi remembered the history of the Taliban. Suddenly, the Taliban was created by Pakistani military intelligence to sabotage and destabilize Kashmir against India. When Soviet troops entered Afghanistan in 1979, the CIA and the British Mi6 intelligence service decided to retrain the Taliban from India to Afghan, anti-Soviet. “It is a universal terrorist organization that can be redirected in any direction at will, according to its masters,” Kedmi said.
He remembered how, when he first came to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban destroyed centuries-old Buddha statues carved into the rock. “This is one of the wildest, most destructive and inhumane trends in Islam.” And now (they will) have their own state. This state will develop and strengthen. If he gains enough strength, he will move on, “Kedmi predicted. He believes that the main course of the Taliban's advance will be in related tribes. “They can't take over Pakistan because Pakistan is strong enough.” They cannot go to Iran because there are Shiites there. Due to mountain conditions, they cannot go east (to China – “MK” ). They will go north … strengthening their indoctrination … between Uzbeks and Tajiks, “said Yakov Kedmi.
In his opinion, it is a little more difficult with Turkmenistan, because there is a desert and a very small population, but they will not forget it (direction). “
Kedmi noted that the Taliban can find many supporters in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries. “All fans of extremist Islam from Central Asia have gone to some distant Syria to fight in the name of religion, as they understand it.” There were Kyrgyz, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Uyghurs, “Kedmi recalled. – … In this case, it is not a conversation about a trip somewhere to Syria thousands of miles away. It's close. The same tribes, relatives. The question is not whether or not it will be, but when it will be. “According to him,” sooner or later Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will face that as well. “
Turkmenistan, to Kyrgyzstan via Tajikistan, will go to Kazakhstan, to the Uyghurs, “the expert is convinced.
China, he believes, “will not interfere in what will happen in Afghanistan, it will try to defend itself, as it always does. he defended himself against an external problem and used his ties in Pakistan to keep from going to China. “
” The problem is becoming more and more serious for Russia, “Kedmi said.
According to him, the best solution would be to support Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to take defensive positions on their borders with Afghanistan.
