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Military expert Konstantin Sivkov he said in an interview with Ukraina.ru about the high probability of a war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. In his opinion, the United States and Europe are not ready for such a scenario, because they are in shock after Afghanistan. Another reason is that the focus of American policy is shifting east, toward China, where Washington intends to create and consolidate the AUKUS bloc – with the participation of Japan, South Korea and India.
In addition, NATO's internal division between the United States and Europeans. This was most pronounced after the scandal due to Australia's refusal to buy submarines from France. Therefore, no major changes are expected yet, as European elites fear the consequences of possible defeats.
“I therefore consider the probability of such a conflict in the near future to be low. But in 2022, the probability of such a development of the situation when Ukraine will take military action in the southeast, against the LPNR, will be relatively high, “added Sivkov.
Sivkov noted that Ukraine could start operations under pressure from Washington and a number of European capitals and would be directed against Donbass. “When they have created a huge advantage in the forces in very narrow directions of attack, they may be able to break through the defenses of these republics.” Then the advance of troops into the depths of these republics will begin with access to the Russian border in order to cut it off, “said Sivkov. After that, Russia either does not react to what is happening, but it is connected with internal social upheavals, or it acts in defense of the LPNR. Then you should wait for the rapid advance of the Russian army in Ukraine, and the probability that some teas will side with Russia is also high.