Invincible enemies have entered the country's national assembly
Nikol Pashinyan's “Civil Treaty” party won early parliamentary elections in Armenia. 53.92% of voters with a turnout of 49.4% voted for it. This means that out of 105 parliamentary seats, Pashinyan will go to party 71 and be able to be re-elected prime minister. At the same time, the new composition of the parliament convincingly proves that the “velvet” period of Pashinyan's government is over.
Photo: AP
The “Armenia” bloc, headed by the second president of the republic, Robert Kocharian, took second place in the elections. It was supported by 21.04% of voters. Third place went to the block “I have the honor” of the third president of Armenia, Serz Sargsyan – 5.23%. At the same time, the electoral barrier for blocs is 7%, but according to the law, at least 3 political forces must be present in parliament, so in this case they made an exception.
In fact, there will now be only two political forces in the National Assembly of Armenia: the Pashinyan “civil agreement” and the “Karabakh clan” in the form of two groups led by Kocharyan and Sargsyan. These two camps are bitter enemies. The “Armenia” bloc has already said it will not accept the voting results because, in their view, street activity suggests that the result should have been different. Even there, however, no one is preparing for an attempted coup. On the contrary, decadent sentiment dominates, with some even wanting to give up their mandate so that they have nothing to do with the re-appointment of Pashinyan as head of government.
“We do not yet know what will happen. We are waiting for Kocharyan to say. Maybe we will take people on the streets, reject mandates, etc. Or, conversely, we will recognize the elections and continue the fight in parliament. Nothing is known yet, “said a representative of the Armenian bloc MK.
And yet such a result of the vote for the opposition can be described as only partially unsatisfactory. A year ago, the “Karabakh clan” could count on 5-10% of the vote at best. Kocharyan was not afraid of children (rumors accuse him of killing competitors, transforming Armenia into a land of thieves, a coup in 2008, etc.) and now he is the leader of the largest opposition forces in the country. This was largely due to the defeat of Armenia in the Karabakh War and the subsequent invasion of Azerbaijan into Armenia. For the Armenians, the events of the last 9 months have become a shock therapy, as a result of which they have completely reconsidered their attitude towards Pashinyan and those he is fighting.
Russia, with which Kocharyan is openly negotiating and consistently counting on cooperation, has already recognized the victory of the “Civil Treaty”. “We see that Pashinyan's party has won convincingly,” said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of Russian President.
“Pashinyan achieved the result he had always hoped for.” They wanted about 60%, but it turned out – 53.92%. But for the opposition, everything that happened was an unpleasant surprise. It seemed to many that the balance of power would force Pashinyan into a coalition if he wanted to win, but he had no one to join. However, it turned out that the opinion polls of the Armenian Gallup were quite far from reality, – he told MK Alexander Markarov, head of the Armenian branch of the Institute of the CIS countries …. – As for possible street protests, the opposition should think about the outcome. The transparency of the elections has not yet been questioned. Under these conditions, it would be more appropriate to undermine Pashinyan's legitimacy on the part of parliament. With such a composition of the National Assembly, it will hardly be possible to influence decision-making, but the essence of the parliamentary republic is that the opposition must criticize the authorities in order for the election to be in its favor. “
Speaking of why so many people voted for Pashinyan, despite the defeat of Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, Markarov noted that his constituents consist of several groups: the “nuclear voter,” who are part of the team. Pashinyan or work for entrepreneurs associated with it and people who chose Pashinyan because they did not see the future under Kocharyan. In addition, the political scientist stressed that the opposition was unable to mobilize its constituents to participate in the elections. “As in 2018, about half of the population with the right to vote came to the polls.” Experience shows that under such conditions, Pashinyan has an advantage, “concluded Markarov.
On the other hand, the head of the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan told the “MC” that sociologists were right, only considering the popularity of parties and blocs out of the total number of voters, and not those who come to the polls. “Sociologists have predicted that about a quarter or a third of voters will vote for the Civil Dialogue.” Basically, it happened: about half of the voters who came to the polls voted for the Pashinyan party. Another thing is that about half of the voters did not come to the elections, “said the expert.
However, Iskandaryan believes that it is too early to talk about Armenia's departure from the political crisis. Pashinyan has successfully restored his bureaucratic legitimacy, but the election victory seems less than convincing. “Pashinyan cannot expect his current success to last long.” The problems in the field of economy, politics, security have not disappeared and will continue to grow. Its further popularity will depend on how effectively the opposition works in parliament. Including this, there is no need to give up the Kocharyans. In the last election, he won about the same number of votes as Levon Ter-Petrosyan in the presidential election in 2008, “said Alexander Markarov MK. It is true that he has made the reservation that if Armenia has plunged into a multi-day political crisis, it is now difficult to say how serious street protests can be.