Orientalist calls Taliban “successes” in Afghanistan exaggerated
US President Biden made political statements on the Afghan war and announced that the US military mission in Afghanistan would end on August 31. The White House chief promised not to send “another generation of Americans” into the war in that country. The expert assessed the impact of the United States' actions on the situation in the region.
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According to Biden, he decided to secure the withdrawal of US forces from Afghan soil ahead of a previously set schedule. Recently, the president of the United States claimed that by September 11, American troops would leave the warring country. But this week, the Pentagon announced that more than 90% of the selection operation had already been completed.
Biden said senior Defense officials had told him that the quickest way to ensure the security of US troops was to relocate forces quickly, and the president noted that there had been no casualties during the withdrawal process.
“In this context, speed is safety,” said Joe Biden. In fact, last week, the US military evacuated Bagram north of Kabul very quickly, in the middle of the night, without informing its Afghan counterparts.
“It was said that the Americans could leave Afghanistan completely by July 4,” comments Andrei Serenko, an orientalist and director of the Analytical Center of the Russian Society of Political Scientists. – I think the Americans are playing with the date of the withdrawal of troops, not because it would be physically necessary to withdraw someone – this process has already been largely completed. There is only an active political process, negotiations with Pakistan, with the Taliban (the Taliban movement in Russia is recognized as an organization banned by terrorism), with the countries of the region. Everything that is happening in Afghanistan now, with a list of regions that the Taliban occupies, is then beaten – it is all very exciting. However, the main events associated with the “Afghan game” do not take place here.
They are on the brink of conflict and the Americans are looking for tools to put pressure on Pakistan; after leaving Afghanistan, the United States will have more free hands than it does now. Pakistanis understand that. It is worth noting the statement by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who some time ago publicly stated the importance of finding a formula for a peaceful settlement of the Afghan conflict before the withdrawal of US troops, either by participants or to signal a marked decline in violence. If we take into account Biden's statement in connection with Imran Khan's statement, then we can say that the Americans are shortening the deadline for Pakistanis, which shows that a formula for a peace settlement must be sought not before 9/11, but at least two weeks earlier. That is, it is an instrument of pressure on Islamabad to move with its initiatives. “
Biden's statements and actions on Afghanistan raise many questions. “Perhaps,” Rich Lowry writes in the POLITICO column, “the Afghan government and its forces will be more resilient than many expect, but if the country continues to wreak havoc, or worse, the Taliban will quickly take over the government of Kabul, President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw the remaining US forces would seem like an amateurish, involuntary mistake of a man proud of his foreign political experience and insight. With the opposition of his senior military leadership and convincing warnings that Kabul could fall within months of his speech, Biden did so anyway based on what his aide called an “gut.” So far, there are indications that it would be better for the president to listen to his military advisers than his intuition. “
As Andrei Serenko notes in his comment, what is happening today is the result of a decade of efforts: “In 2010, Americans realized that this problem could not be solved by military means, began looking for ways to negotiate with the Taliban, an office appeared in Doha. , Americans have begun to have the illusion that, despite the radical Taliban, there is a “moderate” Taliban with which to negotiate. In fact, he does not realize that both are controlled by Pakistani intelligence. And that it is necessary to negotiate an agreement with the Pakistani military leadership in Afghanistan. “Before President Biden's speech, White House spokesman Jen Psaki, speaking about the planned withdrawal of troops, admitted:” We will not have a moment to say that the mission has achieved in this regard. This is a 20-year war that has not been won. “
As The Guardian noted, Jen Psaki's remark was taken as a reference to President George W. Bush's infamous 2003 speech aboard an American aircraft carrier. The White House chief then announced that “major military operations in Iraq have ended.” Another 18 years of bloodshed in an Arab country refuted Bush's optimism.
“The Americans do not consider their Afghan mission complete,” Andrej Serenko comments. “It's not the first time it's reformatted.” During the 20 years of the Afghan project, the Americans have changed the goals of their mission several times. When they arrived in Afghanistan in 2001, the goal was retaliation for the 9/11 attacks. Initially, the goal was not to invade Afghanistan and overthrow the Taliban. The invasion happened because the Taliban did not extradite Osama bin Laden and the organizers of the 9/11 attacks, which the Americans reasonably suspected. The aim was to punish al Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), destroy its infrastructure on Afghan territory and destroy Osama bin Laden. And the Americans met this goal perfectly.
However, when the Americans entered Afghanistan, they began to solve other problems and began to build an Afghan state. They, too, with half sin, but generally fulfilled this goal. An imperfect, weak and corrupt state was built – but Afghanistan returned to a number of normal states. The United States completed the task with a “four”.
But with another task – the fight against the Taliban – the Americans failed. And they couldn't handle it because their job was not to go beyond Afghanistan. And only by destroying the rear Taliban infrastructure in Pakistan could this task be accomplished. That is, in fact, the reason for any failure to fight the Taliban. Their background, their leaders, their militant training network – all located in Pakistan, where no military operations are being conducted against them, but Pakistani intelligence is actively helping the Taliban. Today, the Taliban is no longer a political Islamist Pashtun nationalist movement. In fact, today the Taliban have become an instrument of the hybrid war that the Pakistani military leadership is waging against Afghanistan and the Afghan government.
And this mission failed to fight the Taliban in the United States.
Afghanistan has long turned America into a “suitcase without a handle: it's hard to carry, it's a shame to leave.” And Joe Biden acknowledged that a continued military presence in the country would mean additional losses and costs for the United States. The president recalled that during the war in Afghanistan, 2,488 Americans were killed, another 20,722 were wounded and many returned home with serious physical and mental injuries.
“I will not send another generation of Americans to war. in Afghanistan without reasonable expectations of achieving a different result, the US president said. – We did not come to Afghanistan to build a nation. And it is the right and responsibility of the Afghan people alone to decide their future and the way they want to control their country. The US leader has promised that the United States will “continue to provide civilian and humanitarian assistance” to Afghanistan, including the protection of the rights of women and girls in that country.
The question arises as to whether the US can intervene again in the Afghan conflict if the government in Is Kabul is on the verge of collapse under Taliban attacks? For example, come to the aid of government forces through rocket and bomb attacks or by sending special force groups.
“I do not rule out the possibility that there may be such an even more radical option,” believes Andrei Serenko. – You know, one war is over. And that doesn't mean the next war won't start, just with a different design. Today, we are talking not only about adopting a formula for a peace settlement – Americans may simply be reformatting their presence in the region to continue to take part in the conflict, but from a more advantageous position for themselves. “
In addition to returning his troops after the longest American war, Biden faces the challenge of what to do with Afghan translators and other locals who have worked closely with Americans over the past two decades. Now their lives are in great danger – after all, the militants consider them “traitors.” Joe Biden assured that those who helped American forces would be protected by America – but could everyone be protected? Especially now that Taliban troops are advancing across the country, conquering counties and cities in various provinces.
“Of course, the story of the export of Afghan translators to the West, the people who helped Americans in technical matters, is very important,” Serenko said. – You can, of course, remove the translator – this is a humanitarian and allied duty. However, there is a much more pressing issue for Americans in protecting and maintaining their intelligence network in Afghanistan, which will allow them to receive information after major US intelligence bases leave the country. This is a major task that is not being talked about today. “
In general, according to the expert, the talks about Afghanistan's plans to fall under Taliban attacks do not correspond to reality:” Yes, the Taliban will take control of the region. Yes, they captured more than 100 regions. But they have not yet adopted a single large city, and this is where the majority of the Afghan population lives.
In fact, the Afghan war has just begun. I doubt Kabul will fall. The Taliban are unable to occupy other large cities, provincial administrative centers. And the events that are taking place today are not over yet. We are seeing a seasonal deterioration in northern Afghanistan. And the Taliban is demonstrating not only its abilities, but also the limitations of those abilities. Yes, they captured a lot, but they can't take more. What they swallowed is everything for today. This is a very interesting signal. The Taliban and Pakistanis have thrown all their forces into the summer offensive. That means they have nothing more. So it is premature to talk about an immediate collapse, about an immediate escape, about the need to save everyone. “