The leaders of the coup may, among other things, turn to Russia for help
The situation surrounding the coup, Niger, which survived the coup, continues to escalate. West African defense leaders have gathered in Ghana to discuss the crisis that emerged after the leaders of a military coup in Niamey ignored a deadline for an ultimatum demanding the reinstatement of ousted President Mohammed Bazum. The longer this goes on, the more likely the prospect of foreign intervention becomes. However, this option seems to have enough overhead to make you think about the need for extreme measures.
Photo: AP
A meeting of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) defense ministers was held in Ghana for the first time since the West African regional group ordered the deployment of “reserve forces” last week. restore constitutional government in Niger.
Judging by the latest statements, the leaders of the bloc seriously intend to send multinational forces to the “rebels”
The use of force remains a last resort, but “if all else fails, West Africa's brave forces are ready to respond to the call of duty,” ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel Fatau told Musa bravely.
Contingent will likely consist of several thousand troops from Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin. Moreover, according to the statement of the ECOWAS leadership, all countries – except for Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and the island republic of Cape Verde – expressed their readiness to send their army to participate in the intervention.
The problem seems to be solved. Of course, this is exactly the case where it was smooth on paper, but the ravine was forgotten.
First of all, conflict experts state that preparation can take weeks, if not months of force to intervene.< /p> >
But even if we do not take this into account, the question arises: well, the intervention will be arranged, but what next?
And then, warns political scientist from the University of Leeds (UK) Dr. Olayinka Ajala ECOWAS military intervention can produce three bad results.
This is despite the fact that the mere threat of military force to stop the Nigerian coup d'état has already led to significant divisions in the region, increasing tensions within Niger itself and among its neighbors.
There are increasing signs that any military intervention is likely to be met with stiff resistance. Growing support for the new government “emboldened the conspirators to stay in power and expose the bluff of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),” says Dr. Ajala.
In response to the threat of force, more Nigerians are taking to the streets to express their disapproval, with one protest taking place near a French military base in Niamey.
And things are not so simple in the ECOWAS countries either. In the same Nigeria, which currently holds the position of chairman of this regional association on a rotating basis and acts as a “skirmisher”; intervention, internal pressure increases – in Kano, the largest city in northern Nigeria, protesters took to the streets against a possible invasion of Niger.
Countries neighboring Niger but not members of ECOWAS, such as Chad and Algeria, opposed the use of force. Not to mention the more decisive Mali and Burkina Faso, which have declared their solidarity with Niger and their readiness to help it by force of arms.
And yet the threat of all-out war remains. According to Dr. Ajaly, its first consequence would be an increase in Islamic terrorism. The fact is that countries currently opposing it would divert their armies and resources from fighting extremist jihadist groups like Boko Haram. (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Any escalation further destabilizes the impoverished Sahel region, which has been desperately fighting an Islamist insurgency for years. Terrorist groups could take advantage of conflict-weakened borders if Niger flares up. Extremists may also benefit from a situation where armies that previously fought side by side with Islamist militants will now be fighting against each other.
The second consequence of the invasion of Niger is a massive influx of refugees into the seven countries neighboring this republic. Most of Niger's population lives in the southern part of the country, near the borders with Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries will suffer the most from the influx of refugees, further destabilizing already fragile states. At the same time, as a side effect, more African refugees will try to make their way to Europe by hook or by crook, using the dubious services of criminal human trafficking networks. Niger has several bilateral and multilateral agreements with the EU and individual European countries aimed at limiting mass migration through Libya and the Mediterranean. In addition, the city of Agadez, located in the central part of Niger, used to be known as the main center of illegal migration, but the situation has changed due to the joint actions of Niger and its European partners. If war breaks out, all these efforts will come to naught.
A third consequence is that the conflict will increase tensions between Niger and France. The military, which came to power, blames Paris for the country's instability and economic problems. Among a significant part of the Nigerian public, anger towards the former colonial metropolis and the activities of the French in the African country is already widespread.
Here Dr. Ajala sees a strange – from the perspective of the West – danger: they say that Nigerians can turn to Russia, and even she can use the Wagner group, which is already present in Africa. At the same time, the expert admits that Moscow has not come out in support of the leaders of the coup in Niger, but it can use the full military intervention of ECOWAS to gain another ally on the continent.
So those who want to militarily restore the previous regime in Niger have something to talk about think. And before you make a potentially fatal decision, consider the pros and cons.