Even the slightest provocation can lead to conflict
The establishment of the Taliban (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation) in Afghanistan poses major risks to military security Russia and its allies in Central Asia … Moscow must do everything possible to prevent it from getting into a military conflict. This is the opinion of Russian political scientist, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semyon Bagdasarov.
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“It should be borne in mind that attempts to drag Russia into the conflict on the Afghan-Tajik border they are an ideal situation for our opponents and enemies, which is technically quite easy, “Semyon Bagdasarov wrote on his telegram channel. “However, Russia will not withstand this conflict, given the significant concentration of forces and resources in Ukraine, Syria and, in the near future, in the South Caucasus.”
Negative consequences for our national security. “
“We are talking about a very complex Afghan-Tajik border (over 1344 km), a significant part of which passes through Gorny Badakhshan, where it is difficult to conduct hostilities.” Even the slightest provocation can lead to conflict, “said Bagdasarov.
He recalled the development of military operations during the terrorist invasion of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in 1999. “It took a month for the allied forces of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to remove them from power.” If detailed provocations are carried out in several directions, it will mean a serious threat of Russia's involvement in the conflict, “said Semyon Bagdasarov.
He noted that the Taliban “will try to seize key provinces around Kabul until it is captured on the eve of the withdrawal of US troops” Kabul. ” “All hopes for some kind of compromise between the Afghan government and the movement are not appropriate,” the expert said.
Bagdasarov proposed urgent measures to ensure the military security of Russia and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). He recalled that Russia is taking on commitments to protect the Afghan-Tajik border and is uniting units of the 201st base along Pyanj. The expert added: “It is necessary to transfer a number of our troops in the direction of Pamir (from units of the 201st base), transfer additional reinforcements from Russia and place them on the Afghan-Tajik border.”
According to him, the leadership of Tajikistan, facing the threat of the Taliban, agrees to strengthen military cooperation with Russia. For example, in order to grant the right to the presence of our troops in this area through the FSB, the border service, the drug control units of the Ministry of the Interior and the army units.
Baghdasarov also proposed a number of foreign policy initiatives in relation to the Taliban. “It is appropriate to hold and hold meetings in Moscow, both for the Taliban delegation and for the representatives of the Governments of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.” During the negotiations, it is necessary to establish mutual obligations of the parties regarding non-interference in the internal affairs of other states under the auspices of Russia, “wrote Begdasarov.