“It will not do anything good”
The situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating against the background of the expulsion of foreign troops from there. What are the prospects for its development, what are the military successes of the militants – we talked about it with experts of Afghan origin living in Russia.
Photo: AP
– There are many reasons and we probably do not know about all of them, – comments Omar Nessar, director of the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan. – But it was quite to be expected that with the reduction of NATO's military presence, the Taliban would be more active, as it interpreted the withdrawal itself as a victory, as the strength of its morals – and this is how they present it among their militants.
As for the offensive in northern Afghanistan, there has been a lot of talk in recent months about the emergence of a kind of “northern alliance” that operated in these areas in the 1990s. It seems to me that the Taliban has decided to activate in this direction precisely in order to minimize the appearance of such an alliance, in order to gain control over as many regions as possible that could serve as supply channels for these forces. This is the first.
Secondly, the latest intensification of the Afghan government's actions shows that after the withdrawal of foreign troops, Kabul is also looking for an opportunity to supply through the so-called “northern corridor”. And if you look at the Taliban's actions, it is primarily trying to gain control of roads and roads. It is important for them to deprive Kabul of supplies and make Kabul dependent in the future. Remember how important the Salang Pass was during the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan – it was ruled by Ahmad Shah Massud and could dictate his terms there.
Undoubtedly, it serves as an incentive to activate the Taliban in the north to consolidate the northern elites, and perhaps this will accelerate the rise of resistance against the Taliban.
– It is unlikely that the Taliban would plan such things, because they understand that no one is waiting for them here, it is unlikely that they will find support. The fact is, however, that the Taliban maintain allied relations with other radical groups, including those operating in the Central Asian countries whose goals and objectives are located there. The question, then, is how they will behave, whether they will have the desire to use the border regions there.
In general, the long-standing presence of the Taliban in this area can be seen as a kind of challenge, as checking the main checkpoints can put neighboring countries at a disadvantage, giving them less freedom on the Afghan issue. Especially if the “Northern Alliance” against the Taliban intensifies in the future, it will largely depend on the countries north of the Afghan border.
Some Russian officials sometimes claim that the Taliban promises not to harm third countries … But I'm sorry, there are sometimes demands in Moscow for NATO that it has promised not to expand eastward. And the Taliban – a banned organization! – Can you believe it? It is strange that senior officials base their policies on the promises of a group.
And I would also like to draw attention to the fact that the Taliban among jihadist movements is the only group that has managed to reach such “heights”: the conclusion of a peace agreement with the United States, which the Taliban itself considers the “Surrender” of the United States. This cannot be ignored by other radical groups. The Taliban are in fact becoming the “hero” of these movements – thanks to the Americans who have made such concessions. And this can be an incentive for groups operating in Central Asia.
– The Afghan army has pros and cons. This army is dependent on foreign military and financial assistance, especially American. But how interesting will Americans (and in what volumes) continue to provide? The lion's share of funds coming to Afghanistan from outside is spent on the army and police. That is why the army and the police have become the largest employers. Many people are forced to serve there, not because they have ideological motives to fight, but out of desperation – simply to get a job. The villagers usually walk. That is why a lot depends on the continuation of external assistance.
The Afghan army, of course, has separate combat units, such as special forces, which in most cases deal with the tasks assigned to them. . However, special forces cannot remain in one place at all times, the authorities are forced to move them south, then east and then north.
Nevertheless, it is premature to say that the Taliban will seize power in Kabul in the near future. Although we expect them to continue to expand their zone of influence and controlled territories, it is difficult to imagine that they will control the entire country. They do not have enough resources for that. To date, according to the most inflated estimates, the number of Taliban is 80,000. And most experts call the numbers 40-45 thousand.
The intensification of hostilities is leading Afghanistan towards decentralization and more serious forms of inter-ethnic clashes, one way or another, which may include other (especially regional) countries in this conflict. And it won't do anything good …
“The Taliban has launched large-scale operations in various provinces of Afghanistan, but there are other dangerous terrorist groups in the country's northern regions,” said political scientist, Orientalist Dr. Mohammad Amin. – The activation of the Taliban has created the conditions for an increase in the presence of groups in northern Afghanistan, such as ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). This is already threatening the security not only of the CIS neighboring countries, but also of Russia.
In my opinion, Russia should help the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. He wants to be friends, for example, he sent his national security adviser to Russia, who met with Russian Security Council Minister Patrushev – a sign that he wants to restore normal friendly relations with Moscow.
As for the Taliban, they are recognized in the Russian Federation as banned terrorist organizations. Because Russia should never be actively involved in this issue, because what is happening in Afghanistan is a threat to itself. Then it will be too late for the Taliban to come to power.
– In my view, there are not enough military helicopters and fighter jets in Afghanistan. Russia could help with weapons and equipment – not soldiers, that's not the point.
– Unfortunately, they have money and very modern weapons, sometimes even better than the government army. They are supported by the Pakistani party, foreign mercenaries are fighting for them.
– Unfortunately, they have money and very modern weapons, sometimes even better than the government army. They are supported by the Pakistani party, foreign mercenaries are fighting for them …
– When the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, they forbade girls to study, forbade women to work in government structures, destroyed our unique ancient monument in Bamiyan … Of course, people are afraid. After all, now is the XXI century, a century of mutual understanding, trade, civilization. And the Taliban still have medieval philosophy in their heads, they want to rule with medieval fundamentalist rules.
How can a woman in the 21st century be publicly punished for walking without a veil? This is the absolute wilderness. Therefore, the people rose and women and ordinary people took up arms – they do not want the Taliban system. The government of President Ashraf Ghani is supported by all Afghan nationalities in various provinces – Uzbeks, Tajiks and Pashtuns.