“Pakistan fails to plant puppet government in Kabul”
Recent US and NATO troops have left Bagram's largest military base in Afghanistan. It was from her that key operations against the radical Taliban movement and the IS (terrorist organizations banned in Russia) were carried out for two decades. The expert evaluated the prospects for further development of the situation in Afghanistan.
Photo: AP
“ The transfer of Bagram means that Americans are leaving real, without any conspiracy motives, that they will still leave something somewhere or keep it to themselves, & ndash; comments on MK Director of the Analytical Center of the Russian Society of Political Scientists Andrey Serenko … & ndash; No, this time the United States is definitely leaving and will not actually be present in Afghanistan, including Bagram. In general, this base has been at the heart of the entire US and NATO security system in the Islamic Republic. However, Western contingents were located in various provinces.
I think that by July 4, US Independence Day (and not September 11, as previously announced), President Joe Biden will also be reporting on troop withdrawals. In the next few days, the announced American repairmen will not remain in the republic. The CIA residences, separate special forces groups and the embassy's security service are likely to still operate there. But the US military contingent that has been in Afghanistan, to which everyone has become accustomed for 20 years, will not stay. '
According to the expert, the situation in Afghanistan has already changed. Therefore, there is no need to talk about any further changes. The US military presence in Afghanistan over the past year has been highly conditional.
“The Americans, as well as NATO representatives, have been involved in training Afghan security forces, intelligence services, using some separate special forces groups to deal with delicate tasks, but have not participated in hostilities with the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) for a long time. , & ndash; the political scientist continues. & ndash; Therefore, all key changes have already taken place.
The Afghan military is doing quite well today in terms of detaining the Taliban. The fact that they were able to capture several dozen regions did not seriously change the strategic image of the republic, because large cities are still controlled by government forces. I think the Taliban and their Pakistani operators are a little disappointed with the outcome of the June operations. Apparently, they expected more and hoped that the withdrawal of the Americans and NATO from Afghanistan would have a strong demoralizing effect on local security forces and they would begin to give up. There was, of course, some nervousness as I left, but I saw no signs of overwhelming demoralization. Yes, individual groups of Afghan troops surrendered, but this was only due to the fact that they found themselves in a really difficult situation during the June Taliban offensive. “
Now Afghanistan's entire security system is undergoing a transformation, the expert said … A militia of armed people is emerging with the military, special forces and the air force. We are already talking about thousands of people.
“ In Balkh alone, 5,000 militias have taken up arms to resist the Taliban and help the Afghan army, & ndash; noted Andrey Serenko. & ndash; The main result of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan is, in general, that not only local security forces are being reformatted, which are now gradually adapting to new challenges, but also the nature of the Afghan conflict. The international counter-terrorism operation is becoming a patriotic war between the people and army of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan against Pakistan's aggression. This is how Taliban attacks should be perceived. The Taliban have no political subjectivity of their own, no matter what its advocates say. The leaders of this radical movement are completely controlled by Pakistan's intelligence services and the military. Their energy infrastructure, families and businesses are located in Pakistan.
There will be no downfall of the Afghan government or army, no matter what many experts suddenly find on television. The local army is quite calm and confident. Of course, there are a lot of problems, but they were before. There are difficulties in establishing communication between different departments. But all this is decided against the background of practical combat activities. Many of the things Americans used to do now fall under the responsibility of the Afghans themselves. They learn, sometimes it's hard because it's still a new level of work. The main thing & ndash; the fact that the army is adapting to the situation despite the difficulties and losses. And I am sure that Pakistan will not be able to overthrow the current government of Afghanistan and plant a puppet government controlled by Islamabad in Kabul. “
Recall that the official withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghan territory began on May 1. Earlier, White House chief Joe Biden said the US military would leave Afghanistan altogether in early September. The president stressed that military personnel from other states could not form or support local government.