The American elite has lightly engaged in a simultaneous confrontation with Moscow and Beijing
Now the two most explosive points on the planet are Ukraine and Taiwan. Regions, completely different in geostrategic parameters, are united by the danger of becoming the cause and even the battleground of major international conflicts. Both risk terrible sacrifices under the slogan of the struggle for independence. Ukraine declares a threat to its “independence” from Russia and provokes it to sudden movements. Taiwan is getting closer to declaring independence from the PRC, even at the cost of an unavoidable military confrontation in this case. The ruling elites in Kiev and Taipei are ready to go all-in and spin the wheel of fortune, counting on the owner of the casino, who blinks from behind and makes significant mines. Players pretend to have forgotten the heavy losses of others in a similar game in the same business with the same owner.
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In 1949, Kuomintang troops were defeated in a three-year civil war with Gongchandang (Communist Party) troops. The remnants of the ruling party's army, government and apparatus withdrew to the island of Taiwan. He did not become Chinese again until 1945, after being captured by Japan in 1895, which incorporated him into the empire as a result of the Sino-Japanese War. Communist troops pursuing the Kuomintang intended to land in motion in Taiwan and complete the final unification of the Heavenly Empire. The obstacle was the Taiwan Strait, or the American warships stationed in it. “Under the canopy of friendly bayonets” Chiang Kai-shek has established firm control of the island. The emergence of two million “come in large numbers” caused dissatisfaction and then resistance from the local population, both Chinese and indigenous tribes. The answer was “White Terror,” which fell victim to tens of thousands of indigenous Taiwanese in 38 years of Chiang Kai-shek's martial law.
Strict social discipline, Confucian xiaokang-compliant agrarian reform, the creation of a mixed public-private economy, as well as all-round US aid to its “unsinkable aircraft carrier” turned Taiwan into one of the “Asian tigers” as early as the 1960s. century. But even in her fat years, Taipei did not raise the issue of secession. After all, Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang party, as before, were based on the “one China” principle and hoped to return to power throughout the Heavenly Empire. Moreover, it was the Republic of China under the control of the Taipei authorities, and not the People's Republic of China, the capital of Beijing, which was a member of the United Nations.
The desire for existence independent of mainland China began to take shape precisely because of Taipei's expulsion from the United Nations in 1971 following Washington's betrayal of an old ally. In an effort to deepen the rift in Sino-Soviet relations and to pull the PRC to its side, the Americans established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China and severed them with the Republic of China. It happened without warning and in a typical harsh form. The Taiwanese ambassador was awakened in the middle of the night and summoned to the Foreign Ministry. There, the aged diplomat was read a note about the severance of relations. A Taipei State Department official who shared his memories with me, who was accompanying the head of the mission as an assistant at the time, had to take the chief, who had been shocked, out of his arms.
The desire to “expand the Straits of Taiwan” and move as far away from mainland China as possible intensified during the “Cultural Revolution” (1966-1976). Until then, new generations had grown up, even the descendants of the fleeing “emigrants” mastered the initially incomprehensible local dialect “Minnan”, they began to forget their fathers' dream of a victorious return to China. The resumption of normal life on the continent after Mao Zedong's death and the success of Teng Xiaoping's economic policy in the 1980s and 1990s led the island's business and political elites to endorse its “one country, two political systems” formula. Capital investment and technology flows have flowed to the mainland, with the number of Taiwanese entrepreneurs, consultants and specialists occasionally reaching nearly one million people with a population of 24 million in Taiwan! In the same years, the idea of sovereignty began to come to life as “Taiwanese identity” was formed in new generations, with descendants of the original population coming to the fore who got rid of Kuomintang rule “in large numbers.” It was this “identity” that became the reason for the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) first election victory in 1968, which made sovereignty at the heart of its policies.
Americans, who severely reduced their military presence in Taiwan and other forms of Taipei support, seldom thought of their “old friend” during the years of the American-Chinese “marriage of convenience.” However, with the start of the containment of the overly successful Beijing, the Taiwan map is back in play. During the presidency of Barack Obama, a large amount of modern military equipment was sold to Taipei, which began to actively help develop its own military industry. America reached a new level of stimulating separatism literally in the early days of Donald Trump's presidency. Semi-official contacts with local authorities, supplies of new weapons and joint exercises of the Navy and Air Force, resolutions of the Congress … The escalation of all these anti-Chinese activities continued under the current President Joe Biden. Beijing is stepping up its retaliatory military action and has clearly drawn a “red line” – Taiwan's sovereignty will lead to a large-scale operation against the separatists. Now the “red line” can be crossed at any time, but the decision will not be made in Taipei, but in Washington. Given the already involved US involvement in the “Cold Wars” directly against China and Russia, this “red line” may be broken at the same time as the other – Ukraine.
Through the “Taiwanese prism”, the situation in Ukraine looks quite similar. There, too, energetic and militant compatriots, who “came in large numbers” from the western provinces and spoke a vague dialect, seized power. They also expropriated pieces of power and property, forced the Russian-speaking majority to switch to their “IOC”, and introduced the appearance of “white terror” against those who disagreed with the “new order.” The inevitable uprisings were only partially suppressed, and areas with a high degree of self-awareness and self-organization were torn away from Kiev. The new authorities have not been able to cope with the loss of these rich and developed provinces, but they are also failing to return them by force. Therefore, under the banner of “independence” there is a loss of sovereignty of Ukraine, where the power and economic ministries came under the control of the Americans. In the interest of the West, the once-first-class economy is collapsing, the development of Soviet science centers is going down for a buck, Ukrainian beauties have become export goods, and black earth is about to be sold. In exchange, Kiev's elites receive not only “alternative airports” in the West, but also shipments of not always new weapons and vague promises to “come to the rescue.” US and NATO troops are developing training grounds and bases and are approaching Russia's borders. The biggest threat to Ukraine's independence stems from the willingness of the weak leadership in Kiev to engage in a “cold war” against Moscow waged by the United States and its NATO allies. As in the situation around Taiwan, the confrontation along the Ukrainian fault line has reached a critical level. Here, too, a “red line” was drawn – joining NATO, deploying missiles and nuclear weapons in the Independent.
Will the “red lines” in East and West be crossed in the foreseeable future? Unlikely. American elites are somewhat frivolous involved in confrontation with Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have responded by strengthening their “strategic partnership”, with nuclear-armed aircraft flying in a single formation near US bases, unifying missile warning systems and increasingly conducting joint exercises on land, in the oceans and in space. . The situation with the “red lines” and the possibility of a coordinated approach can be well discussed during the personal meeting of President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping in Beijing in February. I think Putin will go a long way not only to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics.
As for the independence fighters in Taipei and Kiev, they need to better understand their role in global political processes. The Chinese have the phrase “straw bast shoes for walking in the mud.” Disposable products are discarded after use, as happened in 1971 in Taiwan, as well as in 2021 in Afghanistan.