“Tehran will bet on cooperation with Armenia”
A new military conflict is imminent in the Transcaucasus. Extensive military exercises by the Iranian army have begun in northern Iran. Tens of thousands of soldiers and a large amount of military equipment were deployed on the border with Azerbaijan to participate in the maneuvers. Tehran accuses Azerbaijan and Turkey of trying to destabilize the situation in the region and create a united Panturkist front. Iranian troops have blocked traffic links in the Nakhichevan area of Azerbaijan and have also deployed air defense systems to fight drones in border areas. The MC learned what caused the escalation in the region and whether the escalation would lead to full hostilities.
Photo: AP
Iran is on the brink of an open military confrontation with Turkey and Azerbaijan. According to the Armenian media, Tehran learned of the impending joint military operation of the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey. The target of the offensive was to be the Armenian province of Syunik, which the Azerbaijanis call Zangezur. This strategically important region separates the main territory of Azerbaijan from the Nakhichevan region.
Both groups of troops could probably occupy the region with a counterattack on both sides, defeating the large Armenian troops. If the region is conquered, Turkey and Azerbaijan could fulfill their long-held dream of creating a Baku-Ankara-Istanbul land corridor, which could in future become part of a global trade route from China to Europe across the Caspian Sea.
For Iran, such a scenario would mean the loss of a single land route through which trade links with European countries take place (via Armenia and the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi).
On the other hand, Iran faces serious problems in the north of the country to prevent the “Syunik crown”. Tehran fears that the Turkish authorities plan to deploy a scheme to supply weapons to the Iranian province of East Azerbaijan inhabited by ethnic Turks. This scenario threatens to launch a large-scale guerrilla war in northern Iran, with the possible subsequent occupation of the region by Turkey.
Tehran took the threat of creating a united “pan-Turkish front” extremely seriously and condemned the aggressive plans of its northern neighbors.
“Iran finds it unacceptable to change the state borders of the countries of our region. All recognized boundaries must be respected. The possible weakness of one country in protecting its borders does not mean that another country has the right to enter foreign aid. Iran will not allow it, “said Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari, the commander of the Iranian ground forces.
According to him, IS (Islamic State, recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation) militants are legally operating in Azerbaijan, planning terrorist attacks on Iranian territory. The Iranian military command also accused Azerbaijan of providing territory to Israeli intelligence, saying that such military cooperation “could become a threat to Azerbaijan's existence.”
All of the above led to the launch of a large-scale military exercise, “The Conquerors of Khyber,” in Azerbaijan, Iran, on Friday, October 1, involving at least 30,000 to 40,000 people. The exercise involves a large number of tanks and large-caliber artillery. Incoming units are covered by short- and medium-range air defense systems. Locals also photographed dozens of jamming stations designed to block the activities of Turkish drones of the Azerbaijani air force. In addition, Iran sent its own drone to the area.
According to a number of unconfirmed reports, Iranian troops blocked traffic on the border with the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani authorities have arrested several Iranian truck drivers involved in international transport.
Despite this, most media outlets in Turkey and Armenia agree that Iran will not yet go into direct military confrontation. As military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky noted in an interview with the Ministry of Culture, the very fact of military exercises indicates a serious change in the balance of power in the region.
– Iran has traditionally maintained good relations with Azerbaijan. And he even provided support during the First Karabakh War. Now Azerbaijan has openly sided with Turkey. So Tehran will now bet on cooperation with Armenia. They have no choice. As long as the status quo remains. But if Turkey crosses certain lines, the Iranians can permanently deploy their troops in Armenia. Now the situation seems to be hanging. But I think that the Turks have so far abandoned their plans to take Syunik. If you remember, when Aliyev first arrived in Karabakh, the Iranians shot him with a telescopic sniper rifle sight. The help is more than obvious. So now “a step to the left – a step to the right” – and Azerbaijan may face extensive wars with an extremely prepared and strong opponent. They will definitely not go for this. For the time being, therefore, the unified Panturkist state is temporarily postponed, the expert concluded.