What early parliamentary elections will change in the kingdom
Early parliamentary elections have started in the Netherlands. It is extremely difficult to predict their outcome – the presented games are neck and neck. But one thing is certain – the time of Mark Rutte, who served as prime minister of the kingdom for 13 years, is over. Now the leader of a far-right anti-Islamic party can take his place, for the first time in the history of the country, a woman can become the new prime minister. We analyze the balance of political forces.
Dylan Ješilgez-Zegerius Photo: Global Look Press
Following the resignation of Mark Rutte's government in July 2023, the Netherlands is on the verge of early parliamentary elections. The savvy liberal-conservative, as he is called in the Western press, has been unable to overcome the differences in the four-coalition over immigration policy. This was the reason for announcing my resignation.
In the elections that started on November 22, four main parties are represented (we emphasize that they are the main ones. Regardless of smaller formations): People's Party for Freedom and Democracy ( VVD). Its leader after Mark Rutte was Dylan Ješilgez-Zegerius, the Green-Labor Alliance (GL/PvdA), the anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders and the New Social Contract (NSC) of Peter Omtzigt.
They say that no party is likely to win more than 20% of the popular vote. The next Dutch government will therefore only meet after the coalition negotiations. And they can easily last several months.
There are 150 members of parliament in the Dutch parliament. The new government needs 76 seats to form a majority. The Guardian points out: no party has ever succeeded, which is why the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Local politics in recent decades has been marked by a sharp decline in support for historic ruling parties from the center right and left. The latter's vote share has fallen from over 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now. This trend can be observed throughout Europe, which is why the European Union expects the result of the parliamentary elections in the Kingdom with some concern.
Recent polls, the Associated Press notes, have shown the four political parties going hand-in-hand. An analysis published on Tuesday showed that Wilders' party narrowly edged out the right-wing liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy as well as the centre-left Labor and Green bloc. Minister of Justice and Security Dylan Jeshilges-Zegerius. In this case, she will become the first female prime minister in the country.
Yeşilgez-Zegerius (a native of Turkey and a former refugee) was elected to head the People's Party after the resignation of Mark Rutte from a similar position. Her main trump card – suppression of migration. That is, the question that cost the previous prime minister his seat. The VVD under the leadership of Yesilgez-Zegerius wants to introduce a two-stage system for accepting refugees, cancel permanent residence for asylum seekers, grant them citizenship of the country only after 10 years of residence there, limit rents and stimulate private housing construction.
The party previously said it was not ruling out a coalition with the far right, but later backtracked, questioning Wilders' ability to become the new head of government: “I don't think it's going to happen. The Netherlands is looking for a leader who can unite the country, who will be for all Dutch people, who can lead our state on an international level. I also don't think that Wilders will be able to win a majority.”
But it is too early to discount a politician whose popularity in polls has been growing throughout the election campaign. Wilders demands “an end to asylum” and “the displacement of migrants” from the territory of the Netherlands. He also insists on banning “Islamic schools, the Koran and mosques”.
The left-wing GL/PvdA alliance is led by EU heavyweight Frans Timmermans. Between 2012 and 2014, he served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, and later rose to high European positions. He was the first vice-president of the European Commission and at the same time held the position of European Commissioner for interdepartmental relations and the rule of law in this executive body of the European Union. Still later, he moved to the post of European Commissioner for Climate Issues and became the executive representative of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In his election campaign, Timmermans (often referred to in the press as the EU's climate czar) promised to restore trust in politics and build a more sustainable future and a stronger Europe. His agenda also includes raising the minimum wage and income support, raising taxes on big companies and high-wage workers, investing in clean energy, creating “citizens' councils”, curbing rents and supporting the development of social housing.
The Labour-Green Alliance leader also called on voters to keep the far right out of government. The calls seem to have had an effect. EenVandaag's research showed that almost half of his supporters vote for him strategically.
As for Peter Omtzigt's New Social Contract, this center-right party was indeed formed recently (in August 2023). He is a supporter of &dquo;better governance” and “managed migration”. On Omtzigt's list of promises: tax reform and improving the financial security of low-income families. He believes that if he wins, he can form a coalition with the other two main parties, but not with the far right.
Smaller parties (of which there are an obscene number in the Netherlands) can play a role in coalition building. However, special attention should be paid to the populist Movement of Farmers and Citizens (FMC). The party, which was formed in 2020, rose on a wave of dissatisfaction with the government's “green” agenda. policy. Although its projected vote share dropped from 22% to 6% since the March provincial election, BBB remained the largest party in the Senate. Accordingly, he is a valuable coalition partner.
Given the highly fragmented nature of Dutch politics, what coalitions are possible is as important as who wins. First, MPs appoint an informant to interview the parties and identify possible alliances. Once a viable coalition is found, the forming body (usually the head of the largest party) opens negotiations and draws up a formal coalition agreement. Last time, the entire process took a record 271 days.
How will the elections end – no one can predict. But it is all the more interesting to wait for their results. A new chapter in the political history of the Netherlands has begun.