The Taliban called Beijing its “main partner”
An official representative of the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) said that the new Afghan authorities consider China as their main partner. The President of the Russian Section of the International Police Association, Lieutenant General, Doctor of Laws, Professor, Honored Lawyer of Russia Yuri Zhdanov, told us about Beijing's position on the events taking place on Afghan soil and what prospects he sees in connection with the Taliban coming to power. p>
Photo: pixabay.com
& ndash; It seems to me with some hope of the prospects that have opened up. And that's not just my opinion. For example, Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, an associate professor at the University of Southern California and a former employee of the US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Security in the Asia-Pacific region, recently released his findings on the relationship between the Chinese authorities and the new Taliban leadership.
Grossman believes that now that the Taliban has seized power in Afghanistan, China is likely to recognize and legitimize the new leadership in the coming weeks or months.
& ndash; There really are reasons. Prior to the fall of Kabul, Beijing's official stance was to promote reconciliation between the warring parties. However, on July 28, 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi welcomed the Taliban. to the Beijing consultations, which was the most obvious sign of melting in relations with the Taliban. And after the fall of Kabul, Beijing's statements were, albeit cautious, but friendly.
As early as August 16, the day after the fall of Kabul, Hua Chuning, an official representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, was asked for possible recognition. She said: “We hope that the Afghan Taliban can form and build a broad and inclusive political structure with ethnic groups in Afghanistan.” The same day, Chinese UN envoy Geng Shuang reiterated the statement. And on August 18, the strongest allusion to China's official recognition of the Taliban came. “It is a generally accepted international practice that government recognition occurs after it is formed,” said State Department spokesman Zhao Lijian. A spokesman for the PRC's foreign ministry said again on August 25 when asked about a meeting between Taliban representatives and the Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan, Beijing is “ready to continue to develop good neighborly relations, friendship and cooperation with Afghanistan and play a constructive role in rebuilding Afghanistan.” >
& ndash; And he's doing the right thing. Where to hurry? This & ndash; only backups for which you have to wait for answers. Beijing fears the great success of the Taliban may give courage to members of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which the Chinese authorities have described as a separatist and terrorist threat in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
There is reason to believe that China, as a new power competing with the United States, intends to demonstrate its unique way of managing world events as opposed to the American approach. It is a good opportunity to show that it is Beijing, not Washington, that is now setting the agenda and shaping the future regional order.
& ndash; Yes, then China did not recognize the Taliban. But today's China is very different. It has truly global interests and is in geopolitical competition with the United States. In addition, China is likely to try to use friendly Afghanistan alongside Pakistan against India, which has become an impressive regional rival.
& ndash; They say things that are pleasant for Beijing to allay its fears. Back in July, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shahin stressed: “ We are concerned about the oppression of Muslims, whether in Palestine, Myanmar or China, and we are concerned about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But we will not interfere in China's internal affairs. “
Taliban; he also assured China that post-war Afghanistan would welcome infrastructure and investment projects to ensure their security.
& ndash; Like everyone & ndash; resources. They are of great importance for China's economic development. I believe that Beijing will expand its Belt and Roads initiative by establishing road and rail links to and after Afghanistan. By the way, the previous Afghan government avoided supporting this initiative, even though it was obviously useful to its own country.
Naturally, the Chinese will not invest in dubious projects. As the terrorist attack on Kabul Airport has shown, the situation on the ground remains volatile and potentially dangerous for Chinese citizens working on infrastructure or other projects. So if the new authorities ensure their security & ndash; other thing.
& ndash; They need new transport infrastructure, including access roads through the narrow Wakhan Corridor, which connects the two countries. This would significantly expand Beijing's ability to gain access to Afghanistan's natural resources. However, according to experts, Afghanistan may have renewable mineral resources of about $ 1 trillion, which now remain trapped in its mountains.
& ndash; Afghanistan's intestines are really rich in minerals. The earth has deposits of coal and precious metals, manganese ores, beryllium, sulfur, sodium chloride, marble, lapis lazuli, barite, celestine. There are known deposits of oil, natural gas, gypsum. Significant lithium deposits have been discovered. And iron and copper reserves, according to various geological estimates, are so large that they can make Afghanistan one of the largest producers of these metals in the world.
But in the Afghan mountains, where these treasures lie, there is nothing & ndash; no mines, no mining equipment, no railways to mine all mined. Of course, you can extract ore with pickaxes and shovels and bring it to donkeys, as locals have sometimes done since ancient times.
This problem is highlighted, for example, in an 80-page report prepared by the Pentagon in 2012, which became known to The Wall Street Journal. The researchers concluded that the construction of the railway could cost more than $ 54 billion. The report noted that building and operating a rail network throughout Afghanistan would cost so much money that it could make large-scale mining unprofitable in one of the world's poorest countries. Although the Afghan authorities at the time hoped that by 2025, mining revenues would account for half of GDP.
The Afghan government, supported by US Department of Defense strategies, aggressively sold its largest stakes in fields to companies in China, India, Canada and the United States, from which it hoped to receive payment for licenses and royalties for the development of mineral resources. But they hoped, as is clear now, in vain. After much research, the Americans concluded that the project would cost 10 billion more than the profit.
& ndash; Apparently ready. What Western experts considered gambling in 2012, now, in 2021, has already become an opportunity that China can realize.
China has experienced rapid or rather explosive development over the last 20 years. railway infrastructure … And not only the development but also the creation of new transport subsystems.
In 2002, the length of Chinese railways was less than 60,000 kilometers, in 2014 it reached 103,000 kilometers. At the end of 2020, according to the White Paper “ Sustainable Transport Development in China“, that number was 146,000 kilometers. Regarding long-distance electrification, the PRC also peaked at the turn of 2012 & ndash; 2013, in front of the former leader & ndash; Russia.
But most importantly, a unique project has been implemented to lay an alpine railway line in the previously isolated Tibet, the so-called Qinghai-Tibet Railway, half of which run at an altitude of over 3 kilometers.
& ndash; Yes, building railways in the Afghan highlands for China in new conditions and with new proven technologies will no longer be an insurmountable task. The question is different & ndash; How will America respond to China's expansion into the Afghan economy? I am afraid we will launch a new terrorist war in Afghanistan. After all, it was not the case that the Americans hastily left this country to give its bowels to their main geostrategic rival. As the saying goes, “I'm not upset, but I won't give it to anyone else.” And over the past decades, the United States has developed algorithms to transfer Islamist terrorist armies from region to region. And this will affect not only the interests of China, but also Russia.
& ndash; The Taliban is not just a Pakistani project. The Taliban grew up on American support for the Dushmans against the USSR. That's why Americans are basically confronted with their own creation.
Pakistan supports the Taliban. But we must remember that Islamabad is not interested in a strong strengthening of the Pashtuns. And the Taliban is a purely Pashtun story.
Pakistan also does not want to see a strong Afghanistan, which could then try to consolidate all Pashtuns. And there are over 40 million Pashtuns in Pakistan, which is 25 million more than in Afghanistan alone. Attitudes towards the Taliban in Islamabad are therefore extremely ambiguous.
There is no Indian interest in the Taliban, because India is the main victim because it was the Indians who actively invested in projects on Afghan territory. Although if the Taliban begin to weaken Pakistan through Pashtun separatism, it will be in Delhi's interest.
On the other hand, Pakistan is also benefiting from the weakening of New Delhi with the help of the Taliban and China. Such a multistage step.
We can say that all the countries in the region have extremely complex and contradictory attitudes towards the Taliban. In the East, however, everything is always difficult, because, as the classics say: “The East is a delicate matter. & # 39;