Experts uncover scenarios of possible conflict
Washington is concerned about China's growing military power. The White House directly identifies China as one of the global challenges for the United States, along with Russia, international terrorism and other external threats. In this regard, the Pentagon has strengthened its forces in the Pacific, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. According to Western media, the war between China and the United States may begin in the next ten years, and it is far from certain that the conflict will end in victory for the Americans.
Photo: mnd.gov.tw
Relationships between Washington and Beijing remain cold. Despite the fact that the Chinese authorities strictly adhere to the policy of non-intervention in military conflicts, the White House is inclined to perceive Chinese military power as a threat to global security. The US government condemns Chinese military activity off the coast of Taiwan, on Japan's maritime border.
Chinese and US Navy warships meet regularly in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and other troubled areas of the World Ocean. A latent global confrontation between the two countries over the next ten years could result in large-scale military action. The American edition of The National Interest informs about it.
The publication predicts that the essence of the conflict remains the same: China and the United States may fall into the “trap of Thucydida” – a situation where a country increasing its military strength begins to displace the existing power. China's international influence is constantly growing, although the United States continues to dictate the rules of the global international order. But as the National Interest noted, this is not enough to start a war: a serious pretext is needed.
The authors of the material suggest that the beginning of the intra-Asian conflict may be a turning point in relations between the United States and China. For example, between China and India or between China and Japan. There is also the possibility of a new conflict on the Korean Peninsula, in which the neighboring powers and the United States will gradually become involved.
The publication therefore continues, the probable conflict will take place in the East China or South China Sea, as a result of which the parties will rely on the fleet and aviation. National interest experts point out that the US Marines have developed strategies for such wars in recent years.
At the same time, the economic and industrial factor works in China's favor. The Chinese navy is modernizing faster than the US navy. The situation is similar in the Air Force. Therefore, Beijing will be able to achieve military parity with the United States in the coming years.
Another strong point of China is logistics. Unlike the Pentagon, the Chinese military command will be able to quickly concentrate ships and submarines in the conflict zone. The United States will have to push the strike force out of the Indian Ocean or the Atlantic.
As the authors of the article summarize, by 2030, unmanned technology and methods of cyber warfare will play a special role in conducting military operations. And although it's hard to imagine who will get their hands on this in the years to come.
However, national interest continues, China will not survive the war “long distance”. The country is highly dependent on energy imports. Any economic blockade of China will lead to a lack of energy resources in the country and also to the collapse of the economy.
Beijing may therefore take the initiative in the initial stages of the conflict, but then will be forced to give up due to the internal situation. China's victory in the conflict is therefore possible if US troops are destroyed at the site of the operation as a result of one strong blow. Otherwise, the United States has a better chance of winning.
For some reason, the forecast of national interest does not take into account the nuclear factor. Although China is several times worse than the United States in terms of nuclear charges and carriers, it is capable of causing unacceptable damage to the United States and destroying several million cities. And such a prospect can well stop any military conflict in its infancy.